MLB matchup

09/05/20267:15 PMMinute Maid ParkHouston, TX

Diamondbacks81 – 74vsAstros77 – 78

Sharp side

🏠 Astros -108

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 9

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Arizona Diamondbacks	4.4	49.8%
Houston Astros	4.4	50.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Arizona Diamondbacks	B-	C+	B-
Houston Astros	B	C	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-112-1.5 (+145)

HOU-108+1.5 (-176)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -120

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-110-1.5 (+145)

HOU-110+1.5 (-175)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+155)

HOU-109+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.5Over -114Under -105

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-106-1.5 (+133)

HOU-104+1.5 (-184)

Total 8.5Over -130Under +110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-110-1.5 (+140)

HOU+100+1.5 (-160)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-110-1.5 (+145)

HOU-110+1.5 (-180)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-108-1.5 (+142)

HOU-108+1.5 (-172)

Total 8.5Over -124Under +102

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-110-1.5 (+150)

HOU-110+1.5 (-180)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+150)

HOU-105+1.5 (-180)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Arizona Diamondbacks

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	@ HOU	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs PHI	W 1–0	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs PHI	L 1–7	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs PHI	L 1–2	W +1.5	U 8
8/29/26	@ SF	L 2–7	L -1.5	O 8
8/29/26	@ SF	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	@ SF	W 10–6	W -1.5	O 8
8/27/26	@ SF	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/26/26	vs CHC	W 2–0	W +1.5	U 8.5
8/25/26	vs CHC	W 5–4	W +1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Houston Astros

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U2–6–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/4/26	vs ARI	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs CHW	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs CHW	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/31/26	vs CHW	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	@ NYM	W 6–3	W +1.5	P 9
8/29/26	@ NYM	L 2–6	L +1.5	P 8
8/28/26	@ NYM	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/27/26	@ NYY	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 8
8/26/26	@ NYY	L 3–9	L +1.5	O 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Diamondbacks and Astros
	Statistic
8.1 (8.2)	Hits	8.0 (8.0)
1.7 (1.7)	Doubles	1.5 (1.5)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.3)
13.2 (13.2)	Total Bases	13.5 (13.6)
3.4 (3.4)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
7.4 (7.4)	Strikeouts	8.2 (8.2)
0.7 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.3 (0.3)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

DiamondbacksBrandon PfaadtConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+12843.9%Under-16462.1%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%

AstrosEthan PeckoConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-12355.2%Under-10451.0%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%

Starting lineups

Arizona DiamondbacksConfirmed

1Lars NootbaarDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLars Nootbaar+84010.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16362.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34222.6%Under-51683.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29474.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
2Geraldo PerdomoSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGeraldo Perdomo+16405.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19766.3%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12755.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+52116.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-12555.6%Under-11052.4%
3Gabriel MorenoC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGabriel Moreno+14606.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34522.5%Under-52283.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-22369.0%Under+16537.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14959.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
4Ketel Marte2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKetel Marte+77011.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-22669.3%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12856.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
5Corbin CarrollRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCorbin Carroll+9309.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59085.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10848.1%Under-15060.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+42419.1%Under-67087.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
6Nolan Arenado3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNolan Arenado+13207.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49516.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
7Max KeplerLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMax Kepler+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49616.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19034.5%Under-26972.9%
8Tim Tawa1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTim Tawa+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45718.0%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36078.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
9Ryan WaldschmidtCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan Waldschmidt+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49383.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+79011.2%Under-142093.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+13806.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38520.6%Under-59285.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-27573.3%Under+20233.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32276.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11147.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33023.3%Under-49683.2%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYordan Alvarez+62013.9%
Total Bases1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49383.1%
Total Hits1.5Over+19633.8%Under-26672.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14058.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+11008.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46917.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24671.1%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+17805.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19265.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43918.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10050.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41880.7%
5Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+14006.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+14241.3%Under-19065.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39120.4%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-19666.2%Under+14640.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34277.4%
6Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
7Yainer DiazC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+20004.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+15139.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-22268.9%Under+16537.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35478.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10751.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+36021.7%Under-54884.6%
8Taylor TrammellLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Trammell+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20667.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
9Cam SmithRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCam Smith+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31524.1%Under-47182.5%

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