MLB matchup

09/06/20261:35 PMCamden YardsBaltimore, MD79°F · Mostly sunny

Red Sox84 – 72vsOrioles75 – 81

Sharp side

🏠 Orioles +112

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Boston Red Sox	4.1	55.7%
Baltimore Orioles	3.6	44.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Boston Red Sox	B-	A	B+
Baltimore Orioles	B	B-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-135-1.5 (+129)

BAL+112+1.5 (-156)

Total 7.0Over -125Under +104

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-135-1.5 (+135)

BAL+110+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-132-1.5 (+128)

BAL+110+1.5 (-157)

Total 7.5Over +102Under -124

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-129-1.5 (+126)

BAL+119+1.5 (-150)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-127-1.5 (+130)

BAL+117+1.5 (-150)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-130-1.5 (+130)

BAL+110+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-134-1.5 (+128)

BAL+114+1.5 (-154)

Total 7.0Over -115Under -105

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-135-1.5 (+125)

BAL+115+1.5 (-155)

Total 7.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-131-1.5 (+130)

BAL+116+1.5 (-155)

Total 7.5Over +110Under -130

Recent form

Last 10 games

Boston Red Sox

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	@ BAL	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	@ BAL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 8
9/3/26	@ BAL	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/2/26	vs SEA	L 3–8	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/1/26	vs SEA	L 6–9	L +1.5	O 7
8/31/26	vs SEA	W 9–8	L -1.5	O 7.5
8/30/26	@ NYY	L 1–16	L -1.5	O 8
8/29/26	@ NYY	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 7
8/29/26	@ NYY	W 6–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/28/26	@ NYY	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Baltimore Orioles

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	vs BOS	L 0–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs BOS	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 8
9/3/26	vs BOS	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/2/26	@ COL	L 5–6	L -1.5	U 11.5
9/1/26	@ COL	L 2–4	L -1.5	U 11
8/31/26	@ COL	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 11
8/30/26	@ ATH	W 8–5	W -1.5	O 10
8/29/26	@ ATH	W 5–3	W -1.5	U 10
8/28/26	@ ATH	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9.5
8/27/26	@ STL	L 5–7	L -1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Red Sox and Orioles
	Statistic
8.2 (8.4)	Hits	7.0 (7.6)
1.8 (1.8)	Doubles	1.3 (1.4)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.2)
13.1 (13.5)	Total Bases	11.6 (12.7)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	3.6 (3.7)
8.2 (8.2)	Strikeouts	9.4 (9.3)
0.7 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

Red SoxPayton TolleConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%

Total Strikeouts7.5Over+10748.3%Under-13657.6%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%

OriolesKyle BradishConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-14559.2%Under+11446.7%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%

Starting lineups

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Roman AnthonyRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRoman Anthony+9109.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15260.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35522.0%Under-54084.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-27073.0%Under+19833.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10250.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
2Mickey Gasper1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMickey Gasper+10408.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45218.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19065.5%Under+14241.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19966.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
3Adley RutschmanC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAdley Rutschman+12007.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40219.9%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-21868.6%Under+16238.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12255.0%Under-11353.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
4Trevor StorySS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTrevor Story+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23370.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44281.5%
5Nick Sogard2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Sogard+19404.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52416.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36178.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
6Caleb Durbin3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCaleb Durbin+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53515.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19165.6%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12255.0%Under-11353.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+57614.8%Under-96090.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30375.2%
7Jarren DuranLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJarren Duran+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46317.8%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+60014.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
8Andruw MonasterioDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAndruw Monasterio+17805.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48017.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35878.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%
9Eli WhiteCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEli White+18805.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31124.3%Under-46482.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33423.0%Under-50383.4%

Baltimore OriolesConfirmed

1Blaze Alexander2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBlaze Alexander+16005.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+14640.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59985.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20767.4%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46382.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+80011.1%Under-146093.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
2Pete Alonso1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterPete Alonso+77011.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
3Coby MayoDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCoby Mayo+78011.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32876.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32876.6%
4Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Encarnacion-Strand+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47917.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
5Gunnar HendersonSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGunnar Henderson+13806.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37578.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23970.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
6Rece HindsLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRece Hinds+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44481.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31324.2%Under-46882.4%
7Leody TaverasRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLeody Taveras+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56715.0%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34722.4%Under-52584.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+54415.5%Under-89089.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36978.7%
8Carlos NarvaezC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCarlos Narvaez+18005.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+70012.5%Under-122092.4%
Total Hits0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+37221.2%Under-56985.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38179.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25471.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29325.4%Under-43481.3%
9Colton CowserCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterColton Cowser+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Hits0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33176.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25171.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27226.9%Under-40080.0%

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