MLB matchup

09/06/20261:40 PMloanDepot parkMiami, FL

Cubs86 – 69vsMarlins76 – 79

Sharp side

✈️ Cubs -137

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Chicago Cubs	4.4	58.3%
Miami Marlins	3.6	41.7%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Chicago Cubs	A-	B+	A-
Miami Marlins	C	C	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-137-1.5 (+119)

MIA+114+1.5 (-143)

Total 8.0Over -117Under -103

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-145-1.5 (+110)

MIA+120+1.5 (-135)

Total 8.0Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-143-1.5 (+110)

MIA+120+1.5 (-134)

Total 8.5Over -103Under -120

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-135-1.5 (+118)

MIA+125+1.5 (-140)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-130-1.5 (+125)

MIA+120+1.5 (-145)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-140-1.5 (+120)

MIA+115+1.5 (-145)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-142-1.5 (+116)

MIA+120+1.5 (-140)

Total 8.0Over -120Under -102

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-145-1.5 (+120)

MIA+120+1.5 (-140)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-139-1.5 (+120)

MIA+123+1.5 (-145)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

Recent form

Last 10 games

Chicago Cubs

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	@ MIA	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/4/26	@ MIA	W 6–1	W -1.5	U 8
9/3/26	vs MIL	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs MIL	L 5–9	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/1/26	vs MIL	L 4–9	L +1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs MIL	W 17–3	W +1.5	O 9.5
8/30/26	vs CIN	L 5–7	L -1.5	O 9.5
8/29/26	vs CIN	W 17–5	W -1.5	O 9.5
8/28/26	vs CIN	L 8–10	L -1.5	O 9
8/26/26	@ ARI	L 0–2	L -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Miami Marlins

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	vs CHC	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/4/26	vs CHC	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 8
9/3/26	@ KC	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9
9/2/26	@ KC	W 9–6	W +1.5	O 9
9/1/26	@ KC	W 6–3	W -1.5	U 10
8/31/26	@ WSH	L 3–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	@ WSH	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 9.5
8/29/26	@ WSH	L 4–5	L -1.5	O 8
8/28/26	@ WSH	L 2–9	L -1.5	O 8.5
8/26/26	vs BOS	W 4–0	W +1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Cubs and Marlins
	Statistic
7.9 (8.6)	Hits	7.6 (8.3)
1.5 (1.6)	Doubles	1.4 (1.6)
1.2 (1.4)	Home Runs	0.8 (1.0)
13.4 (14.7)	Total Bases	11.9 (13.3)
3.9 (4.1)	Walks	3.2 (3.4)
8.7 (8.6)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.0)
0.7 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	1.0 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

CubsClay HolmesConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-11954.3%Under-10751.7%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%

MarlinsTyler PhillipsConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-17363.4%Under+13043.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-16161.7%Under+12644.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%

Starting lineups

Chicago CubsConfirmed

1Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterPete Crow-Armstrong+57514.8%
Total Bases1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33023.3%Under-49783.2%
Total Hits1.5Over+19533.9%Under-26572.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48182.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
2Seiya SuzukiRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSeiya Suzuki+90010.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16662.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33922.8%Under-51283.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-22369.0%Under+16537.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
3Michael Busch1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Busch+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40020.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20166.8%Under+15040.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
4Alex Bregman3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlex Bregman+13806.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36021.7%Under-54884.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-22669.3%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-26072.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11453.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21868.6%
5Michael ConfortoDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Conforto+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58514.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33376.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
6Nico HoernerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterNico Hoerner+33002.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17363.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37121.2%Under-56785.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+18734.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13256.9%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30675.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-18765.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30025.0%Under-44581.7%
7Pedro Ramirez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterPedro Ramirez+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39620.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-20867.5%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-132093.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
8Carson KellyC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCarson Kelly+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49216.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34177.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
9Tyrone TaylorLF

Miami MarlinsConfirmed

1Kyle StowersDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Stowers+81011.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46117.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
2Griffin Conine1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGriffin Conine+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18164.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
3Owen CaissieRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterOwen Caissie+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50116.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-13256.9%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27226.9%Under-40080.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
4Jakob MarseeCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJakob Marsee+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55115.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40480.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-132093.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
5Heriberto HernandezLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHeriberto Hernandez+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31175.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
6Joe MackC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJoe Mack+17805.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58914.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38579.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27573.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32876.6%
7Otto LopezSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOtto Lopez+25003.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+15539.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42219.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13357.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+59614.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30624.6%Under-45582.0%
8Graham Pauley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGraham Pauley+18405.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30524.7%Under-45481.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32676.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42180.8%
9Javier Sanoja2B
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterJavier Sanoja+28003.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48717.0%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39679.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28574.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%

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