MLB matchup

09/06/20262:10 PMMinute Maid ParkHouston, TX

Diamondbacks81 – 74vsAstros77 – 78

Sharp side

✈️ Diamondbacks -105

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Arizona Diamondbacks	4.4	49.3%
Houston Astros	4.4	50.7%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Arizona Diamondbacks	B-	C+	B-
Houston Astros	B	C	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+159)

HOU-115+1.5 (-194)

Total 8.0Over -107Under -112

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-102-1.5 (+165)

HOU-118+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-109-1.5 (+150)

HOU-110+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -127

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI+105-1.5 (+152)

HOU-115+1.5 (-214)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI+108+1.5 (-200)

HOU-118-1.5 (+175)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+160)

HOU-115+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-106-1.5 (+150)

HOU-110+1.5 (-182)

Total 8.0Over -114Under -106

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+155)

HOU-115+1.5 (-185)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI+100-1.5 (+165)

HOU-113+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

Recent form

Last 10 games

Arizona Diamondbacks

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	@ HOU	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9
9/4/26	@ HOU	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs PHI	W 1–0	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs PHI	L 1–7	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs PHI	L 1–2	W +1.5	U 8
8/29/26	@ SF	L 2–7	L -1.5	O 8
8/29/26	@ SF	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	@ SF	W 10–6	W -1.5	O 8
8/27/26	@ SF	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/26/26	vs CHC	W 2–0	W +1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Houston Astros

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line8–2–0W–L–PO/U1–7–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	vs ARI	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9
9/4/26	vs ARI	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs CHW	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs CHW	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/31/26	vs CHW	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	@ NYM	W 6–3	W +1.5	P 9
8/29/26	@ NYM	L 2–6	L +1.5	P 8
8/28/26	@ NYM	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/27/26	@ NYY	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Diamondbacks and Astros
	Statistic
8.1 (8.1)	Hits	8.0 (8.0)
1.7 (1.7)	Doubles	1.5 (1.5)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.3)
13.1 (13.2)	Total Bases	13.5 (13.6)
3.3 (3.3)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
7.4 (7.4)	Strikeouts	8.2 (8.2)
0.7 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.3 (0.3)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

DiamondbacksEduardo RodriguezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+11845.9%Under-15060.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%

AstrosPeter LambertConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-10851.9%Under-11854.1%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%

Starting lineups

Arizona DiamondbacksConfirmed

1Geraldo PerdomoSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterGeraldo Perdomo+13007.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58185.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22268.9%Under+16537.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35578.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44018.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-12355.2%Under-11252.8%
2Ketel Marte2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKetel Marte+86010.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40419.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26072.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
3Gabriel MorenoDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGabriel Moreno+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+14141.5%Under-18865.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-21568.3%Under+16038.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
4Nolan Arenado3B
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterNolan Arenado+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
5Corbin CarrollRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCorbin Carroll+11008.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38820.5%Under-59885.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18164.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14341.2%Under-19966.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+38920.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
6Tommy TroyLF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterTommy Troy+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49716.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33677.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
7James McCannC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJames McCann+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56415.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36678.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25772.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29625.3%Under-44081.5%
8Ildemaro Vargas1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIldemaro Vargas+29003.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48817.0%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42581.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38979.6%
9Jordan LawlarCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJordan Lawlar+16605.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51016.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30924.4%Under-46182.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+57114.9%Under-95090.5%

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+12007.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42918.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17336.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33577.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15360.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+89010.1%Under-168094.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38579.4%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYordan Alvarez+81011.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33123.2%Under-49983.3%
Total Hits1.5Over+20532.8%Under-28073.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12856.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29874.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-20967.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+14606.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42519.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
5Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+11408.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45418.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28474.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
6Nelson VelazquezLF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterNelson Velazquez+9109.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57514.8%Under-96090.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26672.7%
7Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46817.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42180.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24170.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+90010.0%Under-170094.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33577.0%
8Cam SmithRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCam Smith+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52915.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39779.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
9Christian VazquezC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Vazquez+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54415.5%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49383.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30675.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31324.2%Under-46782.4%

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