MLB matchup

09/06/20262:35 PMGlobe Life Park in ArlingtonArlington, TX

Rays94 – 60vsRangers78 – 77

Sharp side

✈️ Rays -111

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Tampa Bay Rays	3.8	51.6%
Texas Rangers	3.6	48.4%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Tampa Bay Rays	B	B+	B+
Texas Rangers	C	B	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-111-1.5 (+150)

TEX-108+1.5 (-182)

Total 7.5Over -113Under -106

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-110-1.5 (+150)

TEX-110+1.5 (-185)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-108-1.5 (+160)

TEX-110+1.5 (-200)

Total 7.5Over -107Under -114

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-107-1.5 (+146)

TEX-103+1.5 (-204)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-104-1.5 (+160)

TEX-106+1.5 (-185)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-110-1.5 (+150)

TEX-110+1.5 (-185)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-108-1.5 (+158)

TEX-108+1.5 (-192)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-110-1.5 (+155)

TEX-110+1.5 (-190)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-104-1.5 (+160)

TEX-108+1.5 (-190)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	@ TEX	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 7
9/4/26	@ TEX	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	@ TEX	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs NYM	L 4–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/1/26	vs NYM	W 6–2	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs NYM	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs SD	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 7
8/29/26	vs SD	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
8/28/26	vs SD	W 9–4	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/26/26	@ DET	W 3–0	W +1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Texas Rangers

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U7–2–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	vs TB	L 3–6	L +1.5	O 7
9/4/26	vs TB	L 6–7	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	vs TB	W 6–0	W +1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs ATH	L 2–9	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/1/26	vs ATH	W 8–5	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs ATH	W 8–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/30/26	@ MIL	W 7–4	W +1.5	O 8.5
8/29/26	@ MIL	L 3–5	L +1.5	P 8
8/28/26	@ MIL	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 7.5
8/26/26	@ CHW	L 4–10	L +1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Rays and Rangers
	Statistic
8.2 (8.7)	Hits	7.5 (7.9)
1.3 (1.4)	Doubles	1.3 (1.4)
0.9 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.1)
12.5 (13.5)	Total Bases	12.1 (12.9)
3.0 (3.2)	Walks	3.1 (3.2)
7.4 (7.3)	Strikeouts	8.5 (8.4)
0.9 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.5)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RaysIan SeymourConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-15160.2%Under+11845.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%

RangersMacKenzie GoreConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-14258.7%Under+11247.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%

Starting lineups

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYandy Diaz+90010.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37321.1%Under-57085.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-26472.5%Under+19434.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10150.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+11607.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+15439.4%Under-20667.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48117.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20967.6%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-33977.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12255.0%Under-11353.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+63013.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-24571.0%Under+18135.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
4Ryan Vilade2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan Vilade+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46317.8%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33477.0%
5Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+62001.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18665.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44918.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+18934.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33577.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-21568.3%Under+15339.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+25628.1%Under-37378.9%
6Jonny DeLucaCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonny DeLuca+17805.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45318.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33176.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51016.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41180.4%
7Jorge MateoSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Mateo+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56115.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11252.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40380.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+33922.8%Under-51283.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47282.5%
8Victor Mesa Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVictor Mesa Jr.+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49516.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32276.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+67013.0%Under-116092.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28426.0%Under-42080.8%
9Nick FortesC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Fortes+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59514.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11553.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51683.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30575.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54284.4%

Texas RangersConfirmed

1Ezequiel DuranCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterEzequiel Duran+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49616.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41780.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
2Corey SeagerSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCorey Seager+70012.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44218.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15660.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
3Justin Foscue2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJustin Foscue+10208.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44618.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17463.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23370.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
4Brandon NimmoRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Nimmo+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44718.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30675.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33176.8%
5Wyatt LangfordLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWyatt Langford+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45718.0%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32276.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16338.0%Under-23069.7%
6Jake Burger1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Burger+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48817.0%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16762.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15040.0%Under-20967.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39779.9%
7Logan O'HoppeDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLogan O'Hoppe+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+81011.0%Under-148093.7%
Total Hits0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29725.2%Under-44181.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38179.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+42219.2%Under-66086.8%
8Elias DiazC
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterElias Diaz+19005.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59514.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47682.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
9Cody Freeman3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCody Freeman+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35422.0%Under-53784.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42681.0%

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