MLB matchup

09/06/20264:10 PMPETCO ParkSan Diego, CA87°F · Cloudy

Yankees89 – 66vsPadres87 – 69

Sharp side

✈️ Yankees -102

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
New York Yankees	3.8	55.7%
San Diego Padres	3.3	44.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
New York Yankees	B	A	A-
San Diego Padres	B	B	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-102-1.5 (+163)

SD-118+1.5 (-199)

Total 7.0Over -105Under -115

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+100-1.5 (+165)

SD-120+1.5 (-200)

Total 7.0Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-106-1.5 (+163)

SD-108+1.5 (-210)

Total 7.0Over -106Under -114

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+102-1.5 (+158)

SD-112+1.5 (-190)

Total 7.0Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+106-1.5 (+175)

SD-116+1.5 (-200)

Total 7.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+100-1.5 (+170)

SD-120+1.5 (-215)

Total 7.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+102-1.5 (+168)

SD-120+1.5 (-205)

Total 7.0Over -105Under -115

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-105-1.5 (+165)

SD-115+1.5 (-200)

Total 6.5Over -135Under +115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY+102-1.5 (+165)

SD-115+1.5 (-200)

Total 6.5Over -135Under +115

Recent form

Last 10 games

New York Yankees

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	@ SD	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	@ SD	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 7
9/2/26	@ LAA	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 6.5
9/1/26	@ LAA	W 7–3	W -1.5	O 7
8/31/26	@ LAA	L 1–10	L -1.5	O 8
8/30/26	vs BOS	W 16–1	W +1.5	O 8
8/29/26	vs BOS	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 7
8/29/26	vs BOS	L 0–6	L +1.5	U 7.5
8/28/26	vs BOS	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7
8/27/26	vs HOU	L 1–5	L -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

San Diego Padres

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/5/26	vs NYY	L 1–5	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs NYY	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 7
9/2/26	@ CIN	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9.5
9/1/26	@ CIN	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 9
8/31/26	@ CIN	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 9
8/30/26	@ TB	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 7
8/29/26	@ TB	L 6–7	W +1.5	O 8
8/28/26	@ TB	L 4–9	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/26/26	vs PIT	W 3–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/25/26	vs PIT	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Yankees and Padres
	Statistic
7.2 (7.8)	Hits	7.0 (7.9)
1.3 (1.4)	Doubles	1.2 (1.4)
1.2 (1.4)	Home Runs	0.9 (1.1)
12.2 (13.5)	Total Bases	11.1 (12.9)
3.4 (3.6)	Walks	3.1 (3.3)
9.6 (9.4)	Strikeouts	8.4 (8.1)
0.9 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.9 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

YankeesGerrit ColeConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10149.8%Under-12956.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+14740.5%Under-19766.3%

PadresMichael KingConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-13357.1%Under+10548.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%

Starting lineups

New York YankeesConfirmed

1Ben RiceDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBen Rice+71012.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47617.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
2Cody BellingerLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCody Bellinger+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43218.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35478.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28474.0%
3Luis Garcia Jr.1B
4Spencer JonesCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSpencer Jones+9109.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10150.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+86010.4%Under-160094.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
5Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJazz Chisholm Jr.+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58814.5%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33677.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
6Jasson DominguezRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJasson Dominguez+16005.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53515.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38379.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19034.5%Under-26972.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30724.6%Under-45782.0%
7George Lombard Jr.SS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGeorge Lombard Jr.+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59714.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46982.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33176.8%
8Ryan McMahon3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan McMahon+13207.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Hits0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30524.7%Under-45582.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25772.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32476.4%
9Austin WellsC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Wells+14606.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+72012.2%Under-126092.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45381.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+76011.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59185.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-25972.1%Under+19134.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48217.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
2Jake Cronenworth2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Cronenworth+18405.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55615.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34022.7%Under-51483.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28574.0%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+9309.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41919.3%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19165.6%Under+14241.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38779.5%
4Ty France1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTy France+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19265.8%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42681.0%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43418.7%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33376.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19065.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+73012.0%Under-130092.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44881.8%
6Luis CampusanoC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Campusano+15406.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48817.0%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40680.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
7Dustin HarrisLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDustin Harris+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47317.5%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11553.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35921.8%Under-54684.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+46917.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+37021.3%Under-56585.0%
8Xander BogaertsSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterXander Bogaerts+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51616.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45181.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+81011.0%Under-148093.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29325.4%Under-43481.3%
9Ethan SalasDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEthan Salas+27003.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Hits0.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11653.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54384.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30924.4%Under-46182.2%

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