MLB matchup

09/07/20261:05 PMCitizens B ParkPhiladelphia, PA77°F · Mostly sunny

Braves91 – 64vsPhillies85 – 70

Sharp side

✈️ Braves +157

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Atlanta Braves	3.5	42.1%
Philadelphia Phillies	4.3	57.9%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Atlanta Braves	B+	B	B+
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	A-	A-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+157+1.5 (-137)

PHI-191-1.5 (+114)

Total 8.0Over -108Under -112

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+155+1.5 (-135)

PHI-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+150+1.5 (-143)

PHI-175-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over -117Under -103

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+170+1.5 (-130)

PHI-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+165+1.5 (-135)

PHI-178-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+155+1.5 (-135)

PHI-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+154+1.5 (-140)

PHI-184-1.5 (+116)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+155+1.5 (-135)

PHI-185-1.5 (+115)

Total 7.5Over -125Under +105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+162+1.5 (-145)

PHI-185-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over -130Under +110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Atlanta Braves

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/6/26	@ PHI	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/5/26	@ PHI	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/4/26	@ PHI	W 5–2	W -1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ WSH	W 9–0	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/1/26	@ WSH	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs SF	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9
8/30/26	vs COL	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/29/26	vs COL	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	vs COL	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 9
8/27/26	vs LAD	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/6/26	vs ATL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs ATL	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/4/26	vs ATL	L 2–5	L +1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ ARI	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	@ ARI	W 7–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ ARI	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	@ LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/29/26	@ LAA	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	@ LAA	W 5–3	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/26/26	@ SEA	W 6–0	W -1.5	U 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Braves and Phillies
	Statistic
7.4 (8.4)	Hits	7.9 (8.1)
1.4 (1.6)	Doubles	1.4 (1.5)
1.0 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.2)
12.0 (14.1)	Total Bases	13.2 (13.7)
2.7 (3.0)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
8.2 (8.0)	Strikeouts	8.5 (8.4)
0.5 (0.5)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

BravesGrant HolmesConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over+10947.8%Under-13958.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-17763.9%Under+13243.1%

PhilliesJesus LuzardoConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%

Total Outs Recorded18.5Over+12943.7%Under-17163.1%

Total Strikeouts7.5Over+11546.5%Under-14659.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%

Starting lineups

Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Ronald Acuna Jr.DH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRonald Acuna Jr.+9609.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41719.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35277.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34922.3%Under-52984.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19265.8%
2Drake BaldwinC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDrake Baldwin+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46617.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40380.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34277.4%
3Ozzie Albies2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOzzie Albies+12407.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33822.8%Under-50983.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-22969.6%Under+16937.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30375.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-162094.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32923.3%Under-49483.2%
4Matt Olson1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt Olson+12607.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21631.6%Under-31075.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
5Lane ThomasRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLane Thomas+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42280.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
6Michael Harris IICF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Harris II+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45618.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19666.2%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-128092.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+40419.8%Under-63086.3%
7Mauricio DubonLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMauricio Dubon+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44518.3%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39779.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27273.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9309.7%Under-178094.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31224.3%Under-46582.3%
8Austin Riley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Riley+14606.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52616.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36678.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
9Ha-Seong KimSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterHa-Seong Kim+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+69012.7%Under-120092.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+37421.1%Under-57285.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33376.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14341.2%Under-19966.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+57814.7%Under-96090.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40580.2%

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Schwarber+44818.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46017.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14859.7%Under+10748.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+9909.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36521.5%Under-55784.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-24370.8%Under+18035.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30975.6%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+74011.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16261.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37221.2%Under-57085.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-21568.3%Under+16038.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15660.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9809.3%Under-190095.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-12355.2%Under-11252.8%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+23004.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14158.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48182.8%
Total Hits1.5Over+17436.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15160.2%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13143.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41780.7%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Bohm+16405.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44218.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
6Bryson Stott3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBryson Stott+14006.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+14940.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15040.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-17063.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53215.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
7Brandon MarshLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Marsh+15606.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40020.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9209.8%Under-174094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27573.3%
8J.T. RealmutoC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJ.T. Realmuto+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46417.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29574.7%
9Justin CrawfordCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJustin Crawford+28003.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56715.0%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10748.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44481.6%

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