MLB matchup

09/07/20261:35 PMCamden YardsBaltimore, MD78°F · Mostly sunny

Guardians80 – 75vsOrioles75 – 80

Sharp side

✈️ Guardians +118

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Cleveland Guardians	4.1	50.6%
Baltimore Orioles	4.0	49.4%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Cleveland Guardians	D+	B+	C+
Baltimore Orioles	B	B-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+118+1.5 (-195)

BAL-142-1.5 (+160)

Total 7.0Over -122Under +101

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+118+1.5 (-190)

BAL-140-1.5 (+155)

Total 7.0Over -125Under +105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+117+1.5 (-200)

BAL-134-1.5 (+160)

Total 7.0Over -117Under -104

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+122+1.5 (-195)

BAL-132-1.5 (+162)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+120+1.5 (-195)

BAL-130-1.5 (+170)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+115+1.5 (-200)

BAL-140-1.5 (+160)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+116+1.5 (-196)

BAL-136-1.5 (+162)

Total 7.5Over +102Under -124

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+115+1.5 (-195)

BAL-135-1.5 (+160)

Total 7.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE+121+1.5 (-200)

BAL-136-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.5Over +110Under -130

Recent form

Last 10 games

Cleveland Guardians

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line2–8–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/6/26	vs DET	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	vs DET	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 7
9/4/26	vs DET	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs DET	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/3/26	vs TOR	L 3–6	L +1.5	O 8
9/2/26	vs TOR	L 0–11	L +1.5	O 7
9/1/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs KC	W 11–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/29/26	vs KC	L 3–8	L -1.5	O 8
8/28/26	vs KC	L 0–3	L -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Baltimore Orioles

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U2–8–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/6/26	vs BOS	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 7
9/5/26	vs BOS	L 0–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs BOS	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 8
9/3/26	vs BOS	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/2/26	@ COL	L 5–6	L -1.5	U 11.5
9/1/26	@ COL	L 2–4	L -1.5	U 11
8/31/26	@ COL	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 11
8/30/26	@ ATH	W 8–5	W -1.5	O 10
8/29/26	@ ATH	W 5–3	W -1.5	U 10
8/28/26	@ ATH	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Guardians and Orioles
	Statistic
7.8 (7.8)	Hits	7.4 (7.6)
1.6 (1.6)	Doubles	1.4 (1.4)
1.0 (0.9)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.2)
12.5 (12.4)	Total Bases	12.3 (12.8)
3.5 (3.5)	Walks	3.7 (3.7)
8.0 (8.0)	Strikeouts	9.4 (9.4)
0.9 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

GuardiansJoey CantilloConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-14859.7%Under+11646.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%

OriolesTrevor RogersConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-13156.7%Under+10349.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+14940.2%Under-19966.6%

Starting lineups

Cleveland GuardiansConfirmed

1Steven KwanLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSteven Kwan+34002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51216.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+37820.9%Under-58085.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14659.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+70012.5%Under-124092.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
2Jo AdellDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJo Adell+75011.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-18064.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43218.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9109.9%Under-172094.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43681.3%
3Jose Ramirez3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Ramirez+80011.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36321.6%Under-55384.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-25471.8%Under+18734.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11453.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41180.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30575.3%
4Angel MartinezRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterAngel Martinez+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42918.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-21768.5%Under+16138.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-132093.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+40120.0%Under-62086.1%
5David Fry1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDavid Fry+11008.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55215.3%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42180.8%
6Angel Genao2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAngel Genao+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46617.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19165.6%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40980.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27273.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43981.4%
7Austin HedgesC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Hedges+17205.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+36021.7%Under-54984.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37679.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47582.6%
8Petey HalpinCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterPetey Halpin+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+65013.3%Under-114091.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13256.9%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+36521.5%Under-55784.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37178.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+39620.2%Under-61085.9%
9Brayan RocchioSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrayan Rocchio+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59114.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30824.5%Under-45982.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+75011.8%Under-132093.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53484.2%

Baltimore OriolesConfirmed

1Blaze AlexanderRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBlaze Alexander+15006.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+15339.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41319.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-21267.9%Under+15738.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26827.2%Under-39279.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
2Pete Alonso1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterPete Alonso+82010.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39620.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15360.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
3Jackson Holliday2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Holliday+15406.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44218.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18064.3%Under+13542.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-35077.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12856.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+70012.5%Under-124092.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19966.6%
4Coby Mayo3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCoby Mayo+10009.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51916.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30375.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
5Gunnar HendersonSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGunnar Henderson+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42219.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+76011.6%Under-136093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
6Christian Encarnacion-StrandDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Encarnacion-Strand+12607.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16662.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23069.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-18064.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40380.1%
7Samuel BasalloC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSamuel Basallo+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57614.8%Under-96090.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21631.6%Under-30975.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33176.8%
8Rece HindsCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRece Hinds+19404.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Hits0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35921.8%Under-54684.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35578.0%
9Dylan BeaversLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDylan Beavers+18805.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47282.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9409.6%Under-178094.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18335.3%Under-26072.2%

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