MLB matchup

09/07/20262:10 PMKauffman StadiumKansas City, MO90°F · Mostly sunny

Diamondbacks81 – 74vsRoyals67 – 88

Sharp side

🏠 Royals -112

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 9

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Arizona Diamondbacks	4.5	49.3%
Kansas City Royals	4.6	50.7%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Arizona Diamondbacks	B-	C+	C+
Kansas City Royals	C	B-	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-107-1.5 (+148)

KC-112+1.5 (-180)

Total 9.0Over -122Under +101

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+150)

KC-115+1.5 (-185)

Total 9.5Over +100Under -120

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-103-1.5 (+150)

KC-113+1.5 (-190)

Total 9.0Over -112Under -108

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+133)

KC-105+1.5 (-184)

Total 9.0Over -125Under +105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-104-1.5 (+152)

KC-106+1.5 (-174)

Total 9.0Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+145)

KC-115+1.5 (-180)

Total 9.5Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-104-1.5 (+146)

KC-112+1.5 (-178)

Total 9.5Over +102Under -124

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-105-1.5 (+150)

KC-115+1.5 (-185)

Total 9.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ARI-104-1.5 (+150)

KC-108+1.5 (-180)

Total 9.5Over +105Under -125

Recent form

Last 10 games

Arizona Diamondbacks

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/6/26	@ HOU	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8
9/5/26	@ HOU	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9
9/4/26	@ HOU	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs PHI	W 1–0	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs PHI	L 1–7	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs PHI	L 1–2	W +1.5	U 8
8/29/26	@ SF	L 2–7	L -1.5	O 8
8/29/26	@ SF	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	@ SF	W 10–6	W -1.5	O 8
8/27/26	@ SF	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Kansas City Royals

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/6/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/5/26	vs TOR	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/4/26	vs TOR	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 10
9/3/26	vs MIA	W 7–3	W +1.5	O 9
9/2/26	vs MIA	L 6–9	L -1.5	O 9
9/1/26	vs MIA	L 3–6	L +1.5	U 10
8/30/26	@ CLE	L 1–11	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/29/26	@ CLE	W 8–3	W +1.5	O 8
8/28/26	@ CLE	W 3–0	W +1.5	U 7.5
8/27/26	@ TOR	W 13–2	W -1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Diamondbacks and Royals
	Statistic
8.3 (8.1)	Hits	8.6 (8.4)
1.7 (1.7)	Doubles	1.9 (1.8)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.0)
13.4 (13.2)	Total Bases	14.0 (13.6)
3.3 (3.3)	Walks	3.2 (3.1)
7.4 (7.5)	Strikeouts	7.6 (7.7)
0.7 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.8)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

DiamondbacksDerek LawConfirmed

RoyalsNoah CameronConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-14959.8%Under+11646.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%

Starting lineups

Arizona DiamondbacksConfirmed

1Geraldo PerdomoSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterGeraldo Perdomo+18805.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49283.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-27073.0%Under+19933.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14959.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
2Ketel Marte2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKetel Marte+57214.9%
Total Bases1.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
Total Hits1.5Over+15439.4%Under-20767.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11453.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
3Gabriel MorenoC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGabriel Moreno+11408.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15961.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38020.8%Under-58385.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-26772.8%Under+19633.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10249.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
4Nolan Arenado3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNolan Arenado+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32223.7%Under-48282.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
5Lourdes Gurriel Jr.DH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLourdes Gurriel Jr.+13806.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32223.7%Under-48382.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-24871.3%Under+18335.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40580.2%
6Ildemaro Vargas1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIldemaro Vargas+16805.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36921.3%Under-56384.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17636.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41780.7%
7Tim TawaRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTim Tawa+14406.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36821.4%Under-56284.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
8Jordan LawlarCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJordan Lawlar+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41319.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-20967.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+75011.8%Under-134093.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
9Ryan WaldschmidtLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan Waldschmidt+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37521.1%Under-57485.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Carter JensenC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCarter Jensen+80011.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44281.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23069.7%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24070.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16662.4%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBobby Witt Jr.+9309.7%
Total Bases1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44481.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+17037.0%Under-23069.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10249.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44281.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24170.7%
3Vinnie Pasquantino1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVinnie Pasquantino+12607.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29525.3%Under-43781.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-25972.1%Under+19134.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11453.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
4Salvador PerezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSalvador Perez+10208.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+28725.8%Under-42480.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-26772.8%Under+19633.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10848.1%Under-15060.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
5Michael Massey2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Massey+14406.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-18064.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54284.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-23069.7%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38779.5%
6Nick Loftin3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Loftin+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
7John RaveRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJohn Rave+17805.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35578.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+59514.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
8Matthew LugoLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMatthew Lugo+16405.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50016.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33577.0%
9Kyle IsbelCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Isbel+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52516.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15160.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%

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