MLB matchup

09/08/20266:40 PMloanDepot parkMiami, FL

Mets71 – 84vsMarlins76 – 79

Sharp side

✈️ Mets -105

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
New York Mets	4.1	53.0%
Miami Marlins	3.8	47.0%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
New York Mets	B	B	B
Miami Marlins	C	C+	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM-105-1.5 (+160)

MIA-115+1.5 (-195)

Total 8.0Over -114Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM-105-1.5 (+155)

MIA-115+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+102+1.5 (-225)

MIA-117-1.5 (+170)

Total 8.0Over -109Under -110

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+100-1.5 (+146)

MIA-110+1.5 (-204)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+101-1.5 (+165)

MIA-111+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM-105-1.5 (+155)

MIA-115+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM-104-1.5 (+152)

MIA-112+1.5 (-184)

Total 8.5Over +102Under -124

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM-105-1.5 (+145)

MIA-115+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+100-1.5 (+165)

MIA-113+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

Recent form

Last 10 games

New York Mets

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U5–3–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/7/26	@ MIA	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/6/26	vs SF	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs SF	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 8
9/4/26	vs SF	W 10–6	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/2/26	@ TB	W 10–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/1/26	@ TB	L 2–6	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ TB	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs HOU	L 3–6	L -1.5	P 9
8/29/26	vs HOU	W 6–2	W -1.5	P 8
8/28/26	vs HOU	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Miami Marlins

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/7/26	vs NYM	L 4–9	L -1.5	O 8
9/6/26	vs CHC	W 10–3	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs CHC	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/4/26	vs CHC	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 8
9/3/26	@ KC	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9
9/2/26	@ KC	W 9–6	W +1.5	O 9
9/1/26	@ KC	W 6–3	W -1.5	U 10
8/31/26	@ WSH	L 3–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	@ WSH	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 9.5
8/29/26	@ WSH	L 4–5	L -1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Mets and Marlins
	Statistic
7.9 (8.0)	Hits	7.8 (8.3)
1.3 (1.3)	Doubles	1.4 (1.6)
1.2 (1.2)	Home Runs	0.9 (1.0)
13.0 (13.2)	Total Bases	12.2 (13.3)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.4)
8.6 (8.6)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.0)
0.6 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	1.0 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

MetsSean ManaeaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+12544.4%Under-15961.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%

MarlinsSandy AlcantaraConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%

Total Outs Recorded18.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-10350.7%Under-12355.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%

Starting lineups

New York MetsConfirmed

1Francisco LindorSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFrancisco Lindor+79011.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53584.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+76011.6%Under-136093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
2Juan SotoLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJuan Soto+57614.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43618.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10952.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53215.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10651.5%
3Bo BichetteDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBo Bichette+16605.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39520.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-25271.6%Under+18635.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11147.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33423.0%Under-50383.4%
4Carson BengeRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCarson Benge+15606.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42519.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43918.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31475.8%
5Jared Young1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Young+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43618.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27573.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
6Marcus Semien2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMarcus Semien+19205.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47217.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14659.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+83010.8%Under-152093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
7A.J. EwingCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterA.J. Ewing+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52715.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38879.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
8Brett Baty3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrett Baty+13207.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30675.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34277.4%
9Francisco AlvarezC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterFrancisco Alvarez+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25927.9%Under-37979.1%

Miami MarlinsConfirmed

1Heriberto HernandezLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterHeriberto Hernandez+72012.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33622.9%Under-50683.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17336.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24571.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10608.6%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
2Otto LopezSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOtto Lopez+15806.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32623.5%Under-48983.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+18335.3%Under-24871.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11546.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31923.9%Under-47882.7%
3Agustin RamirezDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterAgustin Ramirez+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17363.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33722.9%Under-50883.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12755.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10808.5%Under-220095.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%
4Javier Sanoja3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJavier Sanoja+18005.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43881.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-26472.5%Under+19434.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13357.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+79011.2%Under-144093.5%
5Esteury RuizRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterEsteury Ruiz+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40719.7%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23970.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+29725.2%Under-44181.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
6Deyvison De Los Santos1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDeyvison De Los Santos+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47017.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
7Jakob MarseeCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJakob Marsee+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45018.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17163.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37578.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17363.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50616.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
8Jared Serna2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Serna+18005.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45817.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44981.8%
9Brian NavarretoC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrian Navarreto+18005.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54715.5%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47682.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34622.4%Under-52484.0%

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