MLB matchup

09/08/20266:40 PMCitizens B ParkPhiladelphia, PA81°F · Mostly sunny

Astros77 – 78vsPhillies85 – 70

Sharp side

🏠 Phillies -137

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Houston Astros	4.1	44.7%
Philadelphia Phillies	4.6	55.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Houston Astros	B	B-	B
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	B	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+114+1.5 (-175)

PHI-137-1.5 (+144)

Total 8.5Over -119Under -101

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+110+1.5 (-170)

PHI-135-1.5 (+140)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+123+1.5 (-180)

PHI-139-1.5 (+145)

Total 8.5Over -114Under -105

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+120+1.5 (-175)

PHI-130-1.5 (+148)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+121+1.5 (-170)

PHI-131-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+115+1.5 (-165)

PHI-140-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+116+1.5 (-164)

PHI-136-1.5 (+136)

Total 8.5Over -120Under -102

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+115+1.5 (-170)

PHI-140-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+116+1.5 (-175)

PHI-131-1.5 (+145)

Total 8.5Over -120Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Houston Astros

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line8–2–0W–L–PO/U1–7–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/6/26	vs ARI	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs ARI	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9
9/4/26	vs ARI	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs CHW	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs CHW	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/31/26	vs CHW	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	@ NYM	W 6–3	W +1.5	P 9
8/29/26	@ NYM	L 2–6	L +1.5	P 8
8/28/26	@ NYM	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/7/26	vs ATL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	vs ATL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs ATL	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/4/26	vs ATL	L 2–5	L +1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ ARI	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	@ ARI	W 7–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ ARI	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	@ LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/29/26	@ LAA	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	@ LAA	W 5–3	W -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Astros and Phillies
	Statistic
7.7 (8.0)	Hits	8.2 (8.1)
1.4 (1.5)	Doubles	1.5 (1.5)
1.2 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.2)
13.0 (13.6)	Total Bases	13.9 (13.6)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
8.3 (8.2)	Strikeouts	8.4 (8.4)
0.3 (0.4)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

AstrosHayden WesneskiConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-12655.8%Under-10150.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%

PhilliesAndrew PainterConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10449.0%Under-13958.2%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-14158.5%Under+11047.6%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%

Starting lineups

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+11807.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40120.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-23169.8%Under+17136.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-11052.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+77011.5%Under-138093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40980.4%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYordan Alvarez+47617.4%
Total Bases1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40219.9%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-26272.4%Under+19334.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18765.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43418.7%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30975.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+14806.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14141.5%Under-18965.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38820.5%Under-59785.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12255.0%Under-11353.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+81011.0%Under-148093.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
5Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50016.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9109.9%Under-172094.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25028.6%Under-36478.4%
6Yainer DiazC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+17405.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+14241.3%Under-19065.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41019.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10050.0%
7Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50416.6%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32476.4%
8Taylor TrammellLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Trammell+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+69012.7%Under-120092.3%
Total Hits0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29525.3%Under-43781.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26927.1%Under-39479.8%
9Cam SmithRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCam Smith+16405.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55815.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23370.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10608.6%Under-220095.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29725.2%Under-44081.5%

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Schwarber+53915.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46417.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13657.6%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14959.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+12807.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53084.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-24070.6%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+9409.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38720.5%Under-59685.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-22769.4%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10350.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+28003.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16261.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36121.7%Under-55084.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+18734.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17864.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45281.9%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Bohm+20004.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38120.8%Under-58485.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10851.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
6Bryson Stott3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryson Stott+18805.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18164.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13357.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47717.3%Under-76088.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
7Brandon MarshLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Marsh+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44318.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15060.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29574.7%
8J.T. RealmutoC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJ.T. Realmuto+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46117.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15160.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10208.9%Under-200095.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
9Justin CrawfordCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJustin Crawford+34002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51216.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39279.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53715.7%Under-88089.8%

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