MLB matchup

09/08/20267:15 PMTruist ParkAtlanta, GA85°F · Mostly sunny

Rays94 – 60vsBraves91 – 64

Sharp side

🏠 Braves -117

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Tampa Bay Rays	3.8	47.4%
Atlanta Braves	4.1	52.6%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Tampa Bay Rays	B	B+	B
Atlanta Braves	B+	B+	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-103-1.5 (+162)

ATL-117+1.5 (-197)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-102-1.5 (+155)

ATL-118+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-109-1.5 (+155)

ATL-110+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -117

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+101-1.5 (+139)

ATL-111+1.5 (-194)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+102-1.5 (+155)

ATL-112+1.5 (-180)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-105-1.5 (+155)

ATL-115+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-102-1.5 (+158)

ATL-116+1.5 (-178)

Total 8.5Over -114Under -106

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-105-1.5 (+155)

ATL-115+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+100-1.5 (+165)

ATL-113+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U8–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/6/26	@ TEX	L 6–8	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/5/26	@ TEX	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 7
9/4/26	@ TEX	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	@ TEX	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs NYM	L 4–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/1/26	vs NYM	W 6–2	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs NYM	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs SD	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 7
8/29/26	vs SD	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
8/28/26	vs SD	W 9–4	W -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Atlanta Braves

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/7/26	@ PHI	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	@ PHI	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/5/26	@ PHI	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/4/26	@ PHI	W 5–2	W -1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ WSH	W 9–0	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/1/26	@ WSH	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs SF	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9
8/30/26	vs COL	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/29/26	vs COL	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/28/26	vs COL	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Rays and Braves
	Statistic
8.2 (8.7)	Hits	7.9 (8.4)
1.3 (1.4)	Doubles	1.5 (1.6)
0.9 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.3)
12.5 (13.5)	Total Bases	13.0 (14.0)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	2.8 (3.0)
7.4 (7.3)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.0)
0.9 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.5)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RaysFreddy PeraltaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11346.9%Under-15160.2%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11453.3%Under-11753.9%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-12755.9%Under+10050.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%

BravesAJ Smith-ShawverConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-14258.7%Under+11147.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%

Starting lineups

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYandy Diaz+10208.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33922.8%Under-51283.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+16737.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+10408.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37820.9%Under-58085.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22869.5%Under+16937.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28574.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+65013.3%
Total Bases1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54384.4%
Total Hits1.5Over+18734.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
4Liam HicksC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLiam Hicks+15406.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47917.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
5Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+38002.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38720.5%Under-59685.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-25872.1%Under+19034.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30675.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16562.3%Under+11945.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32223.7%Under-48282.8%
6Jonny DeLucaCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonny DeLuca+19205.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40020.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41180.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40980.4%
7Victor Mesa Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVictor Mesa Jr.+12007.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45718.0%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43318.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42681.0%
8Richie Palacios2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRichie Palacios+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58414.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42781.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
9Jorge MateoSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Mateo+15406.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53315.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40580.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47382.5%

Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Michael Harris IICF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Harris II+78011.4%
Total Bases1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51683.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33677.1%
2Ronald Acuna Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterRonald Acuna Jr.+82010.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41319.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
3Matt Olson1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt Olson+79011.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
4Drake BaldwinDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDrake Baldwin+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40319.9%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-21067.7%Under+15738.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25772.0%
5Mauricio DubonSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMauricio Dubon+22004.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+15738.9%Under-21067.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-21368.1%Under+15838.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32876.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12355.2%Under-11252.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38179.2%
6Ozzie Albies2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterOzzie Albies+16605.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32576.5%
7Austin Riley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Riley+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49016.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32876.6%
8Mike YastrzemskiLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMike Yastrzemski+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58414.6%Under-97090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40380.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24871.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
9Sean MurphyC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSean Murphy+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58214.7%Under-97090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40580.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%

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