MLB matchup

09/09/20264:10 PMPetco ParkSan Diego, CA93°F · Mostly sunny

Nationals73 – 82vsPadres86 – 69

Sharp side

✈️ Nationals +154

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Washington Nationals	4.1	39.5%
San Diego Padres	5.2	60.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Washington Nationals	C	D+	C-
San Diego Padres	B	C+	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+154+1.5 (-143)

SD-187-1.5 (+118)

Total 8.5Over -109Under -111

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+165+1.5 (-135)

SD-200-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+148+1.5 (-148)

SD-177-1.5 (+118)

Total 8.5Over -108Under -113

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+158+1.5 (-135)

SD-190-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+175+1.5 (-130)

SD-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+165+1.5 (-135)

SD-200-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+160+1.5 (-140)

SD-190-1.5 (+116)

Total 8.5Over -112Under -108

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+160+1.5 (-140)

SD-195-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

WSH+160+1.5 (-135)

SD-190-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Washington Nationals

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U6–3–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/8/26	@ SD	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/7/26	@ SD	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ LAD	L 5–7	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/5/26	@ LAD	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 7
9/4/26	@ LAD	L 3–5	L +1.5	P 8
9/2/26	vs ATL	L 0–9	L +1.5	U 9.5
9/1/26	vs ATL	W 9–5	W +1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs MIA	W 6–3	W +1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	vs MIA	L 2–6	L +1.5	U 9.5
8/29/26	vs MIA	W 5–4	W +1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

San Diego Padres

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/8/26	vs WSH	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/7/26	vs WSH	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	vs NYY	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
9/5/26	vs NYY	L 1–5	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs NYY	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 7
9/2/26	@ CIN	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9.5
9/1/26	@ CIN	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 9
8/31/26	@ CIN	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 9
8/30/26	@ TB	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 7
8/29/26	@ TB	L 6–7	W +1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Nationals and Padres
	Statistic
7.7 (8.4)	Hits	8.6 (7.8)
1.5 (1.7)	Doubles	1.5 (1.4)
1.2 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.1)
13.1 (14.4)	Total Bases	14.3 (12.7)
3.1 (3.3)	Walks	3.5 (3.3)
8.6 (8.6)	Strikeouts	7.7 (8.0)
0.9 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	1.0 (0.9)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

NationalsJackson KentConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-16462.1%Under+12843.9%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%

PadresWalker BuehlerConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-13657.6%Under+10349.3%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+11845.9%Under-15160.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%

Starting lineups

Washington NationalsConfirmed

1James WoodDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJames Wood+66013.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41819.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12755.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44718.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10952.2%
2Dylan CrewsRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDylan Crews+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40419.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19666.2%Under+14640.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+37221.2%Under-57085.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
3Andres Chaparro3B
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterAndres Chaparro+84010.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40619.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
4CJ Abrams2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCJ Abrams+9309.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19034.5%Under-26972.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+39820.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19034.5%Under-26972.9%
5Yohandy Morales1B
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterYohandy Morales+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50016.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17763.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26927.1%Under-39479.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
6Daylen LileLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaylen Lile+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45018.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50216.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
7Keibert RuizC
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterKeibert Ruiz+19005.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45917.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34277.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
8Nasim NunezSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNasim Nunez+34002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51616.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31724.0%Under-47382.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+26627.3%Under-38979.6%
9Jacob YoungCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJacob Young+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54815.4%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31524.1%Under-47082.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30075.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+42119.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45281.9%

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47682.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+17636.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10050.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41380.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
2Xander BogaertsSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterXander Bogaerts+16405.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+15339.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41519.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-21568.3%Under+16038.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28974.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44218.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+9609.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39720.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-22268.9%Under+16537.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+86010.4%Under-160094.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16462.1%
4Ty France1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTy France+15206.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34922.3%Under-52884.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-23169.8%Under+17136.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+14406.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35122.2%Under-53384.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-22869.5%Under+16937.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+56315.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33276.9%
6Luis CampusanoC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Campusano+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45218.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15360.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+71012.3%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
7Austin HaysDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Hays+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50216.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32276.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+89010.1%Under-168094.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
8Samad TaylorLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSamad Taylor+29003.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50116.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38379.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+29025.6%Under-42981.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
9Jase BowenRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJase Bowen+16405.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+67013.0%Under-116092.1%
Total Hits0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25471.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%

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