MLB matchup

09/09/20266:40 PMloanDepot parkMiami, FL

Mets71 – 84vsMarlins76 – 78

Sharp side

✈️ Mets +104

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
New York Mets	4.3	50.3%
Miami Marlins	4.3	49.7%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
New York Mets	B-	C	C+
Miami Marlins	C	C	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+104+1.5 (-198)

MIA-126-1.5 (+162)

Total 8.5Over -122Under +101

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+105+1.5 (-200)

MIA-125-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+106+1.5 (-200)

MIA-121-1.5 (+160)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -120

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+105+1.5 (-190)

MIA-125-1.5 (+158)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+110+1.5 (-190)

MIA-120-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+105+1.5 (-200)

MIA-125-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+106+1.5 (-192)

MIA-124+1.5 (-188)

Total 8.5Over -118Under +100

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+105+1.5 (-195)

MIA-125-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+105+1.5 (-200)

MIA-125-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

New York Mets

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U6–2–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/8/26	@ MIA	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 8
9/7/26	@ MIA	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/6/26	vs SF	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs SF	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 8
9/4/26	vs SF	W 10–6	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/2/26	@ TB	W 10–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/1/26	@ TB	L 2–6	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ TB	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs HOU	L 3–6	L -1.5	P 9
8/29/26	vs HOU	W 6–2	W -1.5	P 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Miami Marlins

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/8/26	vs NYM	L 5–7	L +1.5	O 8
9/7/26	vs NYM	L 4–9	L -1.5	O 8
9/6/26	vs CHC	W 10–3	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs CHC	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/4/26	vs CHC	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 8
9/3/26	@ KC	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9
9/2/26	@ KC	W 9–6	W +1.5	O 9
9/1/26	@ KC	W 6–3	W -1.5	U 10
8/31/26	@ WSH	L 3–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	@ WSH	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 9.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Mets and Marlins
	Statistic
8.0 (8.0)	Hits	8.1 (8.3)
1.3 (1.3)	Doubles	1.5 (1.6)
1.3 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.0)
13.3 (13.3)	Total Bases	13.0 (13.3)
3.2 (3.2)	Walks	3.3 (3.3)
8.5 (8.6)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.0)
0.6 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	1.0 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

MetsRobert StockConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%

Total Outs Recorded13.5Over-13256.9%Under+10050.0%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+13043.5%Under-16662.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%

MarlinsJanson JunkConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+13143.3%Under-17463.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%

Total Outs Recorded13.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over+12344.8%Under-15761.1%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+16737.5%Under-22569.2%

Starting lineups

New York MetsConfirmed

1Francisco LindorSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFrancisco Lindor+78011.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34922.3%Under-53084.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-26472.5%Under+19434.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+76011.6%Under-136093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
2Juan SotoLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJuan Soto+57114.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39020.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-24771.2%Under+18235.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12555.6%Under-11052.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51716.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
3Bo Bichette3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBo Bichette+16605.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35122.2%Under-53284.2%
Total Hits1.5Over+19633.8%Under-26772.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11247.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35422.0%Under-53884.3%
4Carson BengeRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCarson Benge+14806.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56184.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-24771.2%Under+18235.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13557.4%Under-10250.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+52316.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
5Jared YoungDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Young+12607.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19966.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10208.9%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
6Marcus Semien2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMarcus Semien+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39920.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12856.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9709.3%Under-186094.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
7A.J. EwingCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterA.J. Ewing+19005.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19265.8%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47017.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
8Brett Baty1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrett Baty+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45718.0%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11446.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33677.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10408.8%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30375.2%
9Luis TorrensC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Torrens+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48117.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26027.8%Under-37979.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53484.2%

Miami MarlinsConfirmed

1Kyle StowersDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Stowers+64013.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39520.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-21668.4%Under+16138.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12355.2%Under-11252.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
2Heriberto HernandezLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterHeriberto Hernandez+89010.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40219.9%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10009.1%Under-198095.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19265.8%
3Griffin Conine1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGriffin Conine+9109.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26672.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
4Otto LopezSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOtto Lopez+20004.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32423.6%Under-48582.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+20033.3%Under-27273.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17363.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25927.9%Under-37879.1%
5Jakob MarseeCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJakob Marsee+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42419.1%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59985.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
6Javier Sanoja2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJavier Sanoja+26003.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18665.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37820.9%Under-58085.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-25171.5%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14258.7%Under+10349.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49283.1%
7Owen CaissieRF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterOwen Caissie+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53215.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30975.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
8Graham Pauley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGraham Pauley+18405.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49716.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38779.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33376.9%
9Joe MackC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJoe Mack+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%

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