MLB matchup

09/09/20266:40 PMCitizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia, PA85°F · Intermittent clouds

Astros77 – 78vsPhillies85 – 70

Sharp side

🏠 Phillies -161

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Houston Astros	3.3	41.5%
Philadelphia Phillies	4.2	58.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Houston Astros	B	A-	B+
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	A	A

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+133+1.5 (-158)

PHI-161-1.5 (+131)

Total 8.0Over -114Under -106

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+130+1.5 (-160)

PHI-155-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+132+1.5 (-175)

PHI-150-1.5 (+140)

Total 8.0Over -108Under -112

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+130+1.5 (-160)

PHI-155-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+131+1.5 (-160)

PHI-141-1.5 (+140)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+125+1.5 (-165)

PHI-150-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+130+1.5 (-166)

PHI-154-1.5 (+138)

Total 7.5Over -132Under +104

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+130+1.5 (-160)

PHI-155-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+130+1.5 (-165)

PHI-150-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over +110Under -130

Recent form

Last 10 games

Houston Astros

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line8–2–0W–L–PO/U2–6–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/8/26	@ PHI	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs ARI	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs ARI	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9
9/4/26	vs ARI	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs CHW	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs CHW	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/31/26	vs CHW	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	@ NYM	W 6–3	W +1.5	P 9
8/29/26	@ NYM	L 2–6	L +1.5	P 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/8/26	vs HOU	L 5–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/7/26	vs ATL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	vs ATL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs ATL	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/4/26	vs ATL	L 2–5	L +1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ ARI	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	@ ARI	W 7–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ ARI	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	@ LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 7.5
8/29/26	@ LAA	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Astros and Phillies
	Statistic
7.1 (8.0)	Hits	7.8 (8.1)
1.2 (1.5)	Doubles	1.4 (1.5)
1.1 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.2)
11.7 (13.6)	Total Bases	13.0 (13.7)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	3.1 (3.2)
8.4 (8.2)	Strikeouts	8.5 (8.4)
0.3 (0.3)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

AstrosHunter BrownConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-15260.3%Under+11945.7%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%

PhilliesCristopher SanchezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-17363.4%Under+13043.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-11353.1%Under-11854.1%

Total Outs Recorded18.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over+10947.8%Under-13958.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+15339.5%Under-20567.2%

Starting lineups

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+13806.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40319.9%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17336.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28126.2%Under-41380.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10250.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9309.7%Under-176094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30724.6%Under-45782.0%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYordan Alvarez+60014.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42219.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-27273.1%Under+19933.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20967.6%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30375.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+16005.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+14840.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38320.7%Under-58985.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-21568.3%Under+16038.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31776.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9309.7%Under-176094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
5Yainer DiazC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+18405.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40219.9%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-23670.2%Under+17536.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33376.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23069.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10149.8%
6Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43418.7%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
7Daulton VarshoCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+18005.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47917.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13757.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9209.8%Under-174094.6%
8Cam SmithRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCam Smith+13207.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55215.3%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40580.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+11008.3%Under-230095.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29125.6%Under-43081.1%
9Jorge BarrosaLF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Barrosa+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52516.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34722.4%Under-52684.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21631.6%Under-30975.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle Schwarber1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Schwarber+52516.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52815.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10249.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-16161.7%Under+11646.3%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+14006.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38220.7%Under-58785.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-22869.5%Under+16937.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32476.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34922.3%Under-52984.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31575.9%
3Bryce HarperDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+9309.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18364.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41819.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+88010.2%Under-164094.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10651.5%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+24004.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+19334.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
5Bryson Stott3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBryson Stott+15406.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+14840.3%Under-19966.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43018.9%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-21568.3%Under+16038.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24871.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16462.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11453.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+36921.3%Under-56585.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
6Brandon MarshLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Marsh+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+68012.8%Under-120092.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
7Justin CrawfordCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJustin Crawford+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47317.5%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
8J.T. RealmutoC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJ.T. Realmuto+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51716.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32276.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
9Bryan De La CruzRF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan De La Cruz+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55015.4%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40980.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial