MLB matchup

09/09/20267:15 PMTruist ParkAtlanta, GA87°F · Mostly sunny

Rays94 – 60vsBraves91 – 64

Sharp side

🏠 Braves -126

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Tampa Bay Rays	3.8	46.3%
Atlanta Braves	4.2	53.7%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Tampa Bay Rays	B	B	B
Atlanta Braves	B+	B	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+104+1.5 (-199)

ATL-126-1.5 (+163)

Total 8.0Over -112Under -108

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-200)

ATL-125-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB-103-1.5 (+163)

ATL-118+1.5 (-205)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -122

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-195)

ATL-125-1.5 (+162)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+109+1.5 (-194)

ATL-119-1.5 (+169)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-200)

ATL-125-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+106+1.5 (-196)

ATL-124-1.5 (+164)

Total 8.5Over +102Under -124

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105-1.5 (+165)

ATL-125+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-200)

ATL-125-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.5Over +110Under -130

Recent form

Last 10 games

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/8/26	@ ATL	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ TEX	L 6–8	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/5/26	@ TEX	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 7
9/4/26	@ TEX	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	@ TEX	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs NYM	L 4–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/1/26	vs NYM	W 6–2	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs NYM	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs SD	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 7
8/29/26	vs SD	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Atlanta Braves

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/8/26	vs TB	L 1–7	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/7/26	@ PHI	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	@ PHI	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/5/26	@ PHI	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/4/26	@ PHI	W 5–2	W -1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ WSH	W 9–0	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/1/26	@ WSH	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs SF	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9
8/30/26	vs COL	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
8/29/26	vs COL	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Rays and Braves
	Statistic
8.2 (8.7)	Hits	8.0 (8.4)
1.3 (1.4)	Doubles	1.5 (1.6)
0.9 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.3)
12.6 (13.6)	Total Bases	13.2 (14.0)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	2.8 (3.0)
7.4 (7.3)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.0)
0.9 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.5)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RaysGriffin JaxConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+11047.6%Under-14759.5%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-10851.9%Under-11854.1%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+13442.7%Under-18064.3%

BravesReynaldo LopezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-14358.8%Under+11247.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11553.5%

Starting lineups

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34922.3%Under-53084.1%
Total Hits1.5Over+18635.0%Under-25371.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11247.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32576.5%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+9309.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39320.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-21067.7%Under+15639.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+60014.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39020.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-26772.8%Under+19633.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12555.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35077.8%
4Liam HicksC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLiam Hicks+15806.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46917.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
5Victor Mesa Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVictor Mesa Jr.+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41719.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30375.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+58814.5%Under-98090.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38679.4%
6Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+16537.7%Under-22268.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53015.9%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-24070.6%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40380.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12444.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30724.6%Under-45782.0%
7Cedric MullinsCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCedric Mullins+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49816.7%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34022.7%Under-51483.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30075.0%
8Richie Palacios2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRichie Palacios+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41280.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+37421.1%Under-57285.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29274.5%
9Jorge MateoSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Mateo+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47617.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44381.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+27226.9%Under-39980.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+44018.5%Under-69087.3%

Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Drake BaldwinDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDrake Baldwin+9309.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16362.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41319.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-24571.0%Under+18135.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
2Ronald Acuna Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterRonald Acuna Jr.+10009.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37221.2%Under-56885.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+30025.0%Under-44581.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23069.7%
3Matt Olson1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt Olson+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42219.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15040.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23670.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
4Michael Harris IICF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Harris II+11607.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15961.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38020.8%Under-58285.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-25872.1%Under+19034.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23970.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-18064.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-132093.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52884.1%
5Mauricio DubonSS
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+15639.1%Under-20967.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43418.7%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33176.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13557.4%Under-10250.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42380.9%
6Mike YastrzemskiLF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56715.0%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13442.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
7Ozzie Albies2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOzzie Albies+18405.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41019.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13757.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10408.8%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39679.8%
8Austin Riley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Riley+15406.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48017.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32876.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18364.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26627.3%Under-38979.6%
9Sean MurphyC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51216.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37178.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25171.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33677.1%

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