MLB matchup

09/10/202612:15 PMTruist ParkAtlanta, GA84°F · Partly sunny

Rays95 – 60vsBraves92 – 64

Sharp side

✈️ Rays +105

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Tampa Bay Rays	4.3	47.9%
Atlanta Braves	4.5	52.1%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Tampa Bay Rays	B	B-	B
Atlanta Braves	B+	B-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-198)

ATL-127-1.5 (+163)

Total 8.5Over -103Under -117

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105-1.5 (+165)

ATL-125+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+100-1.5 (+163)

ATL-118+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over -103Under -121

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-195)

ATL-125-1.5 (+162)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+110+1.5 (-195)

ATL-120-1.5 (+170)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-200)

ATL-125-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+108+1.5 (-210)

ATL-126-1.5 (+172)

Total 8.5Over -104Under -118

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-200)

ATL-125-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TB+105+1.5 (-215)

ATL-125-1.5 (+170)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	@ ATL	W 7–2	W +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ ATL	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ TEX	L 6–8	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/5/26	@ TEX	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 7
9/4/26	@ TEX	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	@ TEX	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs NYM	L 4–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/1/26	vs NYM	W 6–2	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs NYM	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	vs SD	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Atlanta Braves

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	vs TB	L 2–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs TB	L 1–7	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/7/26	@ PHI	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	@ PHI	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/5/26	@ PHI	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/4/26	@ PHI	W 5–2	W -1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ WSH	W 9–0	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/1/26	@ WSH	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs SF	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9
8/30/26	vs COL	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Rays and Braves
	Statistic
8.6 (8.7)	Hits	8.2 (8.4)
1.3 (1.4)	Doubles	1.5 (1.6)
1.0 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.3)
13.2 (13.6)	Total Bases	13.6 (14.0)
3.2 (3.2)	Walks	2.9 (3.0)
7.3 (7.2)	Strikeouts	8.0 (8.0)
1.0 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.5)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RaysNick MartinezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-11553.5%Under-11152.6%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+17236.8%Under-23269.9%

BravesMartin PerezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%

Total Strikeouts2.5Over-16762.5%Under+13043.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11553.5%

Starting lineups

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYandy Diaz+9609.4%
Total Bases1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46982.4%
Total Hits1.5Over+16038.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12444.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
2Ryan Vilade1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan Vilade+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38720.5%Under-59685.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34777.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14659.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28574.0%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+77011.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36121.7%Under-54984.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-25171.5%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
4Jonny DeLucaRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonny DeLuca+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43118.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19766.3%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29474.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49316.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
5Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+42002.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14940.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-26572.6%Under+19533.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11653.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16338.0%Under-23069.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-19265.8%Under+13842.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+31224.3%Under-46682.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33922.8%Under-51283.7%
6Nick Madrigal2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Madrigal+33002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38479.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9409.6%Under-180094.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42080.8%
7Jorge MateoSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Mateo+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11047.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17163.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26027.8%Under-37979.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24671.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+36221.6%Under-55284.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32623.5%Under-48983.0%
8Nick FortesC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Fortes+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55215.3%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42581.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28173.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31524.1%Under-47182.5%
9Cedric MullinsCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCedric Mullins+15006.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59214.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34277.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53115.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41780.7%

Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Drake BaldwinC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDrake Baldwin+87010.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47382.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-27673.4%Under+20233.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27273.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38079.2%
2Ronald Acuna Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterRonald Acuna Jr.+82010.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33622.9%Under-50783.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23970.5%Under+17736.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24070.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13557.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34922.3%Under-53084.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
3Matt Olson1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt Olson+66013.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35122.2%Under-53284.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-21468.2%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20367.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
4Michael Harris IICF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Harris II+9909.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33223.1%Under-49983.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-26672.7%Under+19633.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+54915.4%Under-90090.0%
5Mauricio Dubon2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMauricio Dubon+20004.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19566.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39020.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-22769.4%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10851.9%
6Dominic SmithDH
7Austin Riley3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Riley+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41719.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9909.2%Under-194095.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32623.5%Under-49083.1%
8Brewer HicklenLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrewer Hicklen+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46117.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9109.9%Under-172094.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32323.6%Under-48482.9%
9Ha-Seong KimSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHa-Seong Kim+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48017.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11446.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20667.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-132093.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46282.2%

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