MLB matchup

09/10/20261:05 PMCitizens Bank ParkPhiladelphia, PA87°F · Partly sunny

Astros77 – 78vsPhillies85 – 70

Sharp side

🏠 Phillies -187

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Houston Astros	3.3	34.0%
Philadelphia Phillies	4.9	66.0%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Houston Astros	B	C+	B-
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	A	A

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+154+1.5 (-136)

PHI-187-1.5 (+113)

Total 8.5Over -113Under -107

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+155+1.5 (-135)

PHI-190-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+150+1.5 (-137)

PHI-182-1.5 (+114)

Total 8.5Over -103Under -120

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+158+1.5 (-130)

PHI-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+162+1.5 (-130)

PHI-175-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+155+1.5 (-135)

PHI-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+154+1.5 (-134)

PHI-184-1.5 (+112)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+160+1.5 (-130)

PHI-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+160+1.5 (-135)

PHI-190-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Houston Astros

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line8–2–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	@ PHI	L 7–11	L +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ PHI	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs ARI	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs ARI	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9
9/4/26	vs ARI	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs CHW	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs CHW	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/31/26	vs CHW	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 8.5
8/30/26	@ NYM	W 6–3	W +1.5	P 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	vs HOU	W 11–7	W -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs HOU	L 5–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/7/26	vs ATL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	vs ATL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs ATL	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/4/26	vs ATL	L 2–5	L +1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ ARI	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	@ ARI	W 7–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ ARI	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8
8/30/26	@ LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Astros and Phillies
	Statistic
7.1 (8.0)	Hits	8.5 (8.1)
1.2 (1.5)	Doubles	1.6 (1.5)
1.1 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.2)
11.7 (13.7)	Total Bases	14.3 (13.7)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
8.4 (8.3)	Strikeouts	8.4 (8.5)
0.3 (0.3)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

AstrosCristian JavierConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-14759.5%Under+11546.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%

PhilliesZack WheelerConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+12145.2%Under-16261.8%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over-13156.7%Under+10349.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-15160.2%Under+11346.9%

Starting lineups

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49516.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40280.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-162094.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34277.4%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42519.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-24470.9%Under+18035.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12655.8%Under-11052.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17163.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55615.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12744.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+82010.9%Under-150093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38479.3%
5Daulton VarshoCF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53715.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9109.9%Under-172094.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
6Christian Walker1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10551.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24329.2%Under-35377.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
7Cam SmithRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44981.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27173.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39279.7%
8Taylor TrammellLF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+77011.5%Under-138093.2%
Total Hits0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31524.1%Under-47082.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28574.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36378.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
9Christian VazquezC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+40020.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33577.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+37721.0%Under-57885.3%

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41419.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-21368.1%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-17763.9%Under+12744.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10150.2%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58185.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-21067.7%Under+15639.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51216.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-22469.1%Under+16637.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+89010.1%Under-166094.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35522.0%Under-53884.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-25972.1%Under+19134.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26672.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14859.7%Under+10748.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19265.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42619.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20867.5%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24871.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12555.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
6Bryson Stott3B
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41819.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-19466.0%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
7Brandon MarshLF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53415.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16762.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-132093.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32876.6%
8Justin CrawfordCF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45518.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35377.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14659.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47817.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32523.5%Under-48883.0%
9Rafael MarchanC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56914.9%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%

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