MLB matchup

09/11/20262:20 PMWrigley FieldChicago, IL75°F · Mostly sunny

Pirates78 – 77vsCubs86 – 69

Sharp side

✈️ Pirates +156

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Pittsburgh Pirates	3.6	38.9%
Chicago Cubs	4.7	61.1%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	C	C
Chicago Cubs	A-	A-	A-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+156+1.5 (-124)

CHC-189-1.5 (+103)

Total 8.5Over -107Under -112

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+155+1.5 (-125)

CHC-190-1.5 (+105)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+165+1.5 (-127)

CHC-200-1.5 (+105)

Total 8.5Over -104Under -118

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+170+1.5 (-125)

CHC-205-1.5 (+105)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+168+1.5 (-123)

CHC-182-1.5 (+103)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+160+1.5 (-125)

CHC-195-1.5 (+105)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+160+1.5 (-134)

CHC-190-1.5 (+112)

Total 8.5Over -104Under -118

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+165+1.5 (-125)

CHC-200-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+160+1.5 (-125)

CHC-190-1.5 (+105)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall8–2–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/10/26	@ CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/9/26	@ CHW	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ CHW	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs SF	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs SF	L 4–5	L -1.5	P 9
9/1/26	vs SF	W 13–12	L -1.5	O 7.5
8/30/26	@ STL	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Chicago Cubs

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–3–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	@ MIL	L 6–8	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/8/26	@ MIL	L 3–4	W +1.5	P 7
9/7/26	@ MIL	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 8
9/6/26	@ MIA	L 3–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/5/26	@ MIA	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/4/26	@ MIA	W 6–1	W -1.5	U 8
9/3/26	vs MIL	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs MIL	L 5–9	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/1/26	vs MIL	L 4–9	L +1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs MIL	W 17–3	W +1.5	O 9.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Pirates and Cubs
	Statistic
7.7 (8.6)	Hits	8.2 (8.5)
1.3 (1.5)	Doubles	1.6 (1.6)
0.9 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.4)
12.0 (13.7)	Total Bases	14.0 (14.7)
3.3 (3.5)	Walks	3.9 (4.1)
9.4 (9.3)	Strikeouts	8.6 (8.5)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PiratesWilber DotelConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%

Total Hits Allowed1.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%

Total Outs Recorded5.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%

Total Strikeouts1.5Over-17964.2%Under+14041.7%

Total Walks Allowed0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%

CubsShota ImanagaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over+11047.6%Under-14058.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+14940.2%Under-20066.7%

Starting lineups

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Konnor GriffinSS
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41719.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44481.6%
2Oneil CruzCF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49516.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12744.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
3Bryan ReynoldsDH
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44518.3%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
4Rafael Flores Jr.1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55715.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31676.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38279.3%
5Esmerlyn ValdezRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56415.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30975.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
6Nick Gonzales2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54115.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36678.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20333.0%Under-28974.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
7Jake MangumLF
Player props6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50616.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+36121.7%Under-55084.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+75011.8%Under-136093.2%
8Jared Triolo3B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28474.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34222.6%Under-51783.8%
9Henry DavisC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+37621.0%Under-57685.2%

Chicago CubsConfirmed

1Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48182.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-27473.3%Under+20133.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16261.8%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13757.8%Under-10150.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13557.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33977.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
2Seiya SuzukiRF
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50483.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-20867.5%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
3Michael Busch1B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38620.6%Under-59485.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-20166.8%Under+15040.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24270.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
4Alex Bregman3B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40419.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22869.5%Under+16937.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23370.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
5Ian HappLF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42519.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
6Nico HoernerSS
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38320.7%Under-58885.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-24370.8%Under+18035.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30675.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11047.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30624.6%Under-45582.0%
7Michael ConfortoDH
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52116.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
8Pedro Ramirez2B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43018.9%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20567.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+73012.0%Under-130092.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25628.1%Under-37378.9%
9Carson KellyC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48917.0%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24329.2%Under-35377.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%

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