MLB matchup

09/11/20267:10 PMTropicana FieldSt. Petersburg, FL

Astros77 – 78vsRays94 – 60

Sharp side

✈️ Astros +162

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Houston Astros	3.4	39.3%
Tampa Bay Rays	4.5	60.7%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Houston Astros	B	C	B-
Tampa Bay Rays	B	A-	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+162+1.5 (-136)

TB-198-1.5 (+113)

Total 7.5Over -108Under -112

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+165+1.5 (-135)

TB-200-1.5 (+110)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+160+1.5 (-137)

TB-195-1.5 (+112)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+175+1.5 (-130)

TB-210-1.5 (+110)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+169+1.5 (-140)

TB-183-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+160+1.5 (-140)

TB-195-1.5 (+115)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+168+1.5 (-132)

TB-200-1.5 (+110)

Total 7.5Over -108Under -112

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+160+1.5 (-135)

TB-195-1.5 (+115)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+173+1.5 (-135)

TB-198-1.5 (+115)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Houston Astros

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line8–2–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/10/26	@ PHI	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	@ PHI	L 7–11	L +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ PHI	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs ARI	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs ARI	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9
9/4/26	vs ARI	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs CHW	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs CHW	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
8/31/26	vs CHW	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/10/26	@ ATL	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 8
9/9/26	@ ATL	W 7–2	W +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ ATL	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ TEX	L 6–8	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/5/26	@ TEX	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 7
9/4/26	@ TEX	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	@ TEX	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs NYM	L 4–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/1/26	vs NYM	W 6–2	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs NYM	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Astros and Rays
	Statistic
7.2 (8.0)	Hits	8.8 (8.7)
1.3 (1.5)	Doubles	1.4 (1.4)
1.1 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.0)
11.9 (13.7)	Total Bases	13.6 (13.5)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
8.4 (8.3)	Strikeouts	7.2 (7.2)
0.3 (0.3)	Stolen Bases	1.0 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

AstrosMiguel UllolaConfirmed

RaysDrew RasmussenConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-10551.2%Under-12154.8%

Total Walks Allowed0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17236.8%

Starting lineups

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jose AltuveDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+14206.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+14640.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44718.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-22168.8%Under+16437.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25028.6%Under-36478.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44318.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34622.4%Under-52383.9%
2Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+12007.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+15040.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48117.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-21468.2%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26027.8%Under-37979.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+45418.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53084.1%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+11607.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43718.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35578.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22569.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
4Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49616.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34777.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+57614.8%Under-96090.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46982.4%
5Yainer DiazC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+16405.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50016.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-19766.3%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34677.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11753.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+48917.0%Under-79088.8%
6Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55815.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47282.5%
7Cam SmithRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCam Smith+15006.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27773.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32623.5%Under-48983.0%
8Taylor TrammellLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Trammell+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+80011.1%Under-144093.5%
Total Hits0.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32623.5%Under-48983.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+58914.5%Under-98090.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41380.5%
9Nick Allen2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Allen+29003.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+70012.5%Under-122092.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38379.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+51916.2%Under-84089.4%

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterYandy Diaz+9809.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36321.6%Under-55384.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+19334.1%Under-26372.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14959.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9109.9%Under-172094.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23970.5%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+9809.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34522.5%Under-52183.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-20967.6%Under+15639.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14659.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+54215.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44318.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-25872.1%Under+19034.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13357.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25772.0%
4Liam HicksC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLiam Hicks+16605.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44118.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19466.0%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21631.6%Under-30975.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
5Victor Mesa Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVictor Mesa Jr.+10208.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42818.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44918.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20932.4%Under-30075.0%
6Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+54001.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+16238.2%Under-21868.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44618.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-23069.7%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11147.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
7Cedric MullinsCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCedric Mullins+12007.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51316.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48917.0%Under-79088.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
8Richie Palacios2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRichie Palacios+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49916.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13342.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38079.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+52616.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
9Jorge MateoSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Mateo+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58214.7%Under-97090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20667.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51583.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31923.9%Under-47882.7%

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