MLB matchup

09/11/20267:10 PMFenway ParkBoston, MA72°F · Mostly sunny

Royals67 – 88vsRed Sox84 – 71

Sharp side

✈️ Royals +168

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Kansas City Royals	3.6	39.2%
Boston Red Sox	4.6	60.8%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Kansas City Royals	C	C+	C
Boston Red Sox	B-	A-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+168+1.5 (-126)

BOS-206-1.5 (+105)

Total 8.5Over -102Under -118

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+170+1.5 (-120)

BOS-210-1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+165+1.5 (-118)

BOS-200-1.5 (-104)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -117

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+170+1.5 (-120)

BOS-205-1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+184+1.5 (-120)

BOS-200-1.5 (+100)

Total 8.0Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+170+1.5 (-120)

BOS-205-1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+168+1.5 (-122)

BOS-200-1.5 (+102)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+170+1.5 (-120)

BOS-210-1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+170+1.5 (-125)

BOS-200-1.5 (+105)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Kansas City Royals

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	vs ARI	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	vs ARI	L 3–5	L +1.5	U 9
9/7/26	vs ARI	L 4–5	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/5/26	vs TOR	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/4/26	vs TOR	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 10
9/3/26	vs MIA	W 7–3	W +1.5	O 9
9/2/26	vs MIA	L 6–9	L -1.5	O 9
9/1/26	vs MIA	L 3–6	L +1.5	U 10
8/30/26	@ CLE	L 1–11	L +1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Boston Red Sox

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	vs LAA	L 4–6	L -1.5	O 9
9/8/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/7/26	vs LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ BAL	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	@ BAL	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	@ BAL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 8
9/3/26	@ BAL	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/2/26	vs SEA	L 3–8	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/1/26	vs SEA	L 6–9	L +1.5	O 7
8/31/26	vs SEA	W 9–8	L -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Royals and Red Sox
	Statistic
7.6 (8.4)	Hits	8.6 (8.3)
1.6 (1.9)	Doubles	1.8 (1.8)
0.9 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.0)
12.3 (13.8)	Total Bases	13.9 (13.4)
3.0 (3.2)	Walks	3.3 (3.2)
7.8 (7.7)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.2)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RoyalsSeth LugoConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-13958.2%Under+10947.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-20166.8%Under+15040.0%

Red SoxSonny GrayConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-16662.4%Under+12444.6%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-13457.3%Under+10548.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%

Starting lineups

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Carter JensenC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCarter Jensen+9509.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36121.7%Under-55184.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34777.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBobby Witt Jr.+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13757.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30924.4%Under-46182.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-27473.3%Under+20133.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45081.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26627.3%Under-38979.6%
3Vinnie Pasquantino1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterVinnie Pasquantino+12007.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49283.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35878.2%
4Salvador PerezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSalvador Perez+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38520.6%Under-59285.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+36621.5%Under-55884.8%
5Michael Massey2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Massey+15206.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33123.2%Under-49783.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-21167.8%Under+15738.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33777.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23970.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+46017.9%Under-73088.0%
6John RaveRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJohn Rave+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12444.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33023.3%Under-49783.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20333.0%Under-28974.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
7Nick Loftin3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Loftin+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48217.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48182.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22231.1%Under-32076.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-17063.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42781.0%
8Kyle IsbelCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Isbel+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54615.5%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33323.1%Under-50183.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33677.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+78011.4%Under-140093.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+36921.3%Under-56484.9%
9Isaac CollinsLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Collins+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48817.0%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47682.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+76011.6%Under-136093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Roman AnthonyLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRoman Anthony+87010.3%
Total Bases1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39679.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-27173.0%Under+19933.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14258.7%Under+10349.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
2Mickey GasperDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMickey Gasper+85010.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46882.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-23169.8%Under+17136.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24871.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
3Adley RutschmanC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAdley Rutschman+11408.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+28226.2%Under-41580.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-23169.8%Under+17136.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13657.6%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
4Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWilyer Abreu+75011.8%
Total Bases1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+28126.2%Under-41580.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-26072.2%Under+19134.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
5Trevor StorySS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTrevor Story+11208.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45817.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12856.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25628.1%Under-37378.9%
6Nick Sogard1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Sogard+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41519.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-33977.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
7Caleb Durbin3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCaleb Durbin+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44618.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36378.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
8Jarren DuranCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJarren Duran+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16061.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36921.3%Under-56384.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-20767.4%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23670.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+77011.5%Under-138093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33577.0%
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsiah Kiner-Falefa+34002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51016.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38579.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51883.8%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial