MLB matchup

09/11/20267:15 PMTruist ParkAtlanta, GA83°F · Cloudy

Phillies85 – 70vsBraves91 – 64

Sharp side

✈️ Phillies +154

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Philadelphia Phillies	3.2	40.7%
Atlanta Braves	4.1	59.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	B+	A-
Atlanta Braves	B+	A+	A-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+154+1.5 (-142)

ATL-187-1.5 (+118)

Total 7.0Over -118Under -102

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+154+1.5 (-145)

ATL-190-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.0Over -130Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+155+1.5 (-152)

ATL-177-1.5 (+125)

Total 7.0Over -118Under -103

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+158+1.5 (-145)

ATL-190-1.5 (+122)

Total 7.0Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+162+1.5 (-145)

ATL-175-1.5 (+125)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+155+1.5 (-145)

ATL-190-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.0Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+158+1.5 (-142)

ATL-188-1.5 (+118)

Total 7.5Over +104Under -128

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+160+1.5 (-145)

ATL-190-1.5 (+115)

Total 7.5Over +110Under -130

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+160+1.5 (-145)

ATL-190-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over +115Under -135

Recent form

Last 10 games

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/10/26	vs HOU	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs HOU	W 11–7	W -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs HOU	L 5–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/7/26	vs ATL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	vs ATL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs ATL	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/4/26	vs ATL	L 2–5	L +1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ ARI	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	@ ARI	W 7–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ ARI	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Atlanta Braves

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/10/26	vs TB	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 8
9/9/26	vs TB	L 2–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs TB	L 1–7	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/7/26	@ PHI	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	@ PHI	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/5/26	@ PHI	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/4/26	@ PHI	W 5–2	W -1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ WSH	W 9–0	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/1/26	@ WSH	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 10
8/31/26	vs SF	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Phillies and Braves
	Statistic
6.9 (8.1)	Hits	7.9 (8.4)
1.2 (1.5)	Doubles	1.4 (1.6)
0.9 (1.2)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.3)
11.2 (13.5)	Total Bases	12.9 (14.0)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	2.8 (3.0)
8.7 (8.4)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.0)
0.6 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.5)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PhilliesAaron NolaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-10952.2%Under-11753.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%

BravesChris SaleConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10449.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%

Total Outs Recorded18.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%

Total Strikeouts7.5Over-10150.2%Under-12755.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+16637.6%Under-22369.0%

Starting lineups

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Schwarber+80011.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59314.4%Under-99090.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49816.7%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25927.9%Under-37979.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50316.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35522.0%Under-53984.4%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+12607.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52416.0%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25827.9%Under-37779.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23970.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23230.1%Under-33677.1%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+47002.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+15040.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46817.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-25571.8%Under+18834.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44281.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12444.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+56215.1%Under-93090.3%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Bohm+17405.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+15139.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38620.6%Under-59485.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26072.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+36221.6%Under-55184.6%
6Edmundo Sosa3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEdmundo Sosa+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59814.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11152.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30924.4%Under-46182.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36078.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14341.2%Under-19966.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+49916.7%Under-81089.0%
7Bryan De La CruzLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan De La Cruz+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58314.6%Under-97090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53084.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+28126.2%Under-41480.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+51916.2%Under-85089.5%
8J.T. RealmutoC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJ.T. Realmuto+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52815.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32523.5%Under-48883.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33176.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31324.2%Under-46782.4%
9Derek HillCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDerek Hill+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54515.5%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59885.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+58714.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+57814.7%Under-96090.6%

Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Drake BaldwinDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDrake Baldwin+82010.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-23570.1%Under+17436.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13557.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24170.7%
2Ronald Acuna Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterRonald Acuna Jr.+77011.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17536.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26972.9%
3Matt Olson1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt Olson+69012.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46117.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19966.6%
4Michael Harris IICF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Harris II+9909.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40120.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-24070.6%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18464.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+77011.5%Under-140093.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47382.5%
5Mauricio DubonSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMauricio Dubon+23004.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+15439.4%Under-20667.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33777.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23670.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33223.1%Under-50083.3%
6Ozzie Albies2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterOzzie Albies+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45118.1%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15160.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38479.3%
7Austin Riley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Riley+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51116.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21868.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18364.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40280.1%
8Mike YastrzemskiLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMike Yastrzemski+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59714.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42080.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25171.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
9Sean MurphyC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSean Murphy+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%

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