MLB matchup

09/11/20268:10 PMTarget FieldMinneapolis, MN81°F · Partly sunny

Guardians80 – 75vsTwins72 – 83

Sharp side

✈️ Guardians -120

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Cleveland Guardians	4.3	54.5%
Minnesota Twins	3.8	45.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Cleveland Guardians	D+	A-	B-
Minnesota Twins	C	B-	C+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-120-1.5 (+140)

MIN-101+1.5 (-170)

Total 7.5Over -114Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-118-1.5 (+140)

MIN-102+1.5 (-170)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-115-1.5 (+148)

MIN+102+1.5 (-182)

Total 7.5Over -113Under -107

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-120-1.5 (+140)

MIN+100+1.5 (-165)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-109-1.5 (+145)

MIN-101+1.5 (-165)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-120-1.5 (+140)

MIN+100+1.5 (-170)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-116-1.5 (+136)

MIN-102+1.5 (-164)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-120-1.5 (+140)

MIN+100+1.5 (-170)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

CLE-120-1.5 (+145)

MIN+100+1.5 (-175)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Cleveland Guardians

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line2–8–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	@ BAL	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	@ BAL	W 9–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/7/26	@ BAL	L 4–6	L +1.5	O 7
9/6/26	vs DET	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	vs DET	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 7
9/4/26	vs DET	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs DET	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/3/26	vs TOR	L 3–6	L +1.5	O 8
9/2/26	vs TOR	L 0–11	L +1.5	O 7
9/1/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Minnesota Twins

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	@ DET	L 2–7	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	@ DET	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/7/26	@ DET	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/6/26	@ CHW	L 1–10	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/5/26	@ CHW	W 6–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/4/26	@ CHW	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs DET	L 6–11	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/1/26	vs DET	W 15–2	W +1.5	O 8.5
8/31/26	vs DET	W 11–1	W -1.5	O 9
8/30/26	vs CHW	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Guardians and Twins
	Statistic
8.0 (7.8)	Hits	7.7 (8.2)
1.6 (1.6)	Doubles	1.5 (1.6)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.2)
12.8 (12.4)	Total Bases	12.6 (13.6)
3.5 (3.5)	Walks	3.0 (3.2)
8.0 (8.0)	Strikeouts	8.2 (8.1)
0.9 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

GuardiansParker MessickConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+12444.6%Under-15961.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%

TwinsTaj BradleyConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-17363.4%Under+13043.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+11945.7%Under-15260.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10149.8%

Starting lineups

Cleveland GuardiansConfirmed

1Steven KwanCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterSteven Kwan+18805.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39720.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-24470.9%Under+18035.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42080.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+89010.1%Under-168094.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
2Chase DeLauterDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterChase DeLauter+80011.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36921.3%Under-56384.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-22469.1%Under+16737.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
3Jose Ramirez3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Ramirez+79011.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30624.6%Under-45682.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-23970.5%Under+17736.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+32423.6%Under-48582.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26672.7%
4Jo AdellRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJo Adell+89010.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23670.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19566.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-162094.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25028.6%Under-36478.4%
5Travis Bazzana2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTravis Bazzana+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43218.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22168.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+56914.9%Under-94090.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
6Nathaniel Lowe1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNathaniel Lowe+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42119.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
7Angel MartinezLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAngel Martinez+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59885.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-33977.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41880.7%
8Austin HedgesC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Hedges+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Hits0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34522.5%Under-52183.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33176.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47682.6%
9Brayan RocchioSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrayan Rocchio+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50516.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25428.2%Under-36978.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+80011.1%Under-146093.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47582.6%

Minnesota TwinsConfirmed

1Luke KeaschallRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterLuke Keaschall+19005.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+15439.4%Under-20667.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36321.6%Under-55284.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20567.2%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41280.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-162094.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19034.5%Under-26972.9%
2Kaelen CulpepperSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKaelen Culpepper+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37820.9%Under-57985.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38879.5%
3Ryan JeffersC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan Jeffers+12607.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37621.0%Under-57785.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29874.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16462.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20367.0%
4Josh BellDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJosh Bell+11607.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47017.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17363.4%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29774.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
5Kody Clemens2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKody Clemens+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45618.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25827.9%Under-37779.0%
6Royce Lewis1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRoyce Lewis+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43718.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30675.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18665.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9709.3%Under-188094.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25927.9%Under-37979.1%
7Brooks Lee3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrooks Lee+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-18064.3%Under+13542.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38279.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48182.8%
8Austin MartinLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Martin+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42581.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
9Walker JenkinsCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterWalker Jenkins+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43681.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33176.8%

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