MLB matchup

09/11/20269:40 PMChase FieldPhoenix, AZ

Rangers78 – 77vsDiamondbacks81 – 74

Sharp side

✈️ Rangers -102

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Texas Rangers	4.3	50.7%
Arizona Diamondbacks	4.2	49.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Texas Rangers	C	B	B-
Arizona Diamondbacks	B-	C+	C+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX-102-1.5 (+164)

ARI-118+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over -122Under +102

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX-102-1.5 (+165)

ARI-118+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX-104-1.5 (+155)

ARI-110+1.5 (-195)

Total 8.5Over -117Under -103

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX-105-1.5 (+139)

ARI-115+1.5 (-194)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX+101-1.5 (+155)

ARI-111+1.5 (-180)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX-105-1.5 (+155)

ARI-115+1.5 (-190)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX-102-1.5 (+160)

ARI-116+1.5 (-194)

Total 8.5Over -122Under +100

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX-105-1.5 (+155)

ARI-115+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

TEX+100-1.5 (+160)

ARI-120+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

Texas Rangers

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U7–2–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/10/26	@ SEA	L 3–4	L -1.5	P 7
9/9/26	@ SEA	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/8/26	@ SEA	W 10–5	W +1.5	O 7.5
9/6/26	vs TB	W 8–6	W +1.5	O 7.5
9/5/26	vs TB	L 3–6	L +1.5	O 7
9/4/26	vs TB	L 6–7	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	vs TB	W 6–0	W +1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs ATH	L 2–9	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/1/26	vs ATH	W 8–5	W -1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs ATH	W 8–1	W -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U2–8–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	@ KC	L 2–5	L -1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ KC	W 5–3	W -1.5	U 9
9/7/26	@ KC	W 5–4	L -1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	@ HOU	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8
9/5/26	@ HOU	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9
9/4/26	@ HOU	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs PHI	W 1–0	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs PHI	L 1–7	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	vs PHI	L 1–2	W +1.5	U 8
8/29/26	@ SF	L 2–7	L -1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Rangers and Diamondbacks
	Statistic
8.2 (8.0)	Hits	8.0 (8.2)
1.5 (1.4)	Doubles	1.6 (1.7)
1.2 (1.1)	Home Runs	0.9 (1.0)
13.4 (13.1)	Total Bases	12.9 (13.2)
3.2 (3.2)	Walks	3.3 (3.4)
8.5 (8.5)	Strikeouts	7.4 (7.4)
0.5 (0.5)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RangersMacKenzie GoreConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11047.6%Under-14759.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-11553.5%Under-11653.7%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+12744.1%Under-16362.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%

DiamondbacksMerrill KellyConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-16762.5%Under+13043.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%

Starting lineups

Texas RangersConfirmed

1Joc PedersonDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJoc Pederson+63013.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59985.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29474.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
2Corey SeagerSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCorey Seager+59014.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36521.5%Under-55784.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-25171.5%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
3Ezequiel Duran3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterEzequiel Duran+15206.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49383.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-24170.7%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-32076.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51016.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33223.1%Under-49983.3%
4Brandon NimmoRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Nimmo+9909.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32323.6%Under-48482.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-23970.5%Under+17736.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12856.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
5Wyatt LangfordLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWyatt Langford+10408.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58185.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
6Evan CarterCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterEvan Carter+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44018.5%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53484.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
7Jake Burger1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Burger+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42881.1%
8Nicky Lopez2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNicky Lopez+34002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48017.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43681.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34022.7%Under-51383.7%
9Danny JansenC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDanny Jansen+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28226.2%Under-41680.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33276.9%

Arizona DiamondbacksConfirmed

1Ildemaro Vargas1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIldemaro Vargas+15406.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46982.4%
Total Hits1.5Over+19134.4%Under-25972.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14859.7%Under+10748.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39279.7%
2Ketel Marte2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterKetel Marte+88010.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47382.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+20033.3%Under-27373.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14859.7%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10408.8%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
3Gabriel MorenoC
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterGabriel Moreno+17605.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16762.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56084.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-27673.4%Under+20233.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10608.6%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
4Geraldo PerdomoSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterGeraldo Perdomo+25003.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19566.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59185.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13357.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
5Corbin CarrollRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCorbin Carroll+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45381.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-24370.8%Under+18035.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13657.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
6Nolan Arenado3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNolan Arenado+16805.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39420.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29025.6%Under-43081.1%
7Lourdes Gurriel Jr.DH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLourdes Gurriel Jr.+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43218.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19466.0%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30075.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16338.0%Under-23069.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+21004.5%Under-640098.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
8Jordan LawlarCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJordan Lawlar+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47517.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13342.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25927.9%Under-37879.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+56815.0%Under-94090.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
9Ryan WaldschmidtLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan Waldschmidt+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39620.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38279.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+59514.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%

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