MLB matchup

09/11/202610:15 PMOracle ParkSan Francisco, CA64°F · Intermittent clouds

Padres81 – 68vsGiants62 – 88

Sharp side

✈️ Padres -163

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
San Diego Padres	4.8	60.8%
San Francisco Giants	3.8	39.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
San Diego Padres	B	B	B
San Francisco Giants	C-	D	D+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-163-1.5 (+109)

SF+134+1.5 (-131)

Total 7.5Over -114Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-165-1.5 (+105)

SF+135+1.5 (-130)

Total 7.5Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-152-1.5 (+110)

SF+133+1.5 (-134)

Total 7.5Over -112Under -108

Caesars Sportsbook

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-165-1.5 (+110)

SF+140+1.5 (-130)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-152-1.5 (+110)

SF+141+1.5 (-130)

Total 8.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics Sportsbook

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-165-1.5 (+110)

SF+135+1.5 (-135)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-156-1.5 (+114)

SF+132+1.5 (-134)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-155-1.5 (+110)

SF+130+1.5 (-135)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-159-1.5 (+115)

SF+140+1.5 (-135)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

San Diego Padres

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	vs WSH	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	vs WSH	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/7/26	vs WSH	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	vs NYY	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
9/5/26	vs NYY	L 1–5	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs NYY	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 7
9/2/26	@ CIN	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 9.5
9/1/26	@ CIN	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 9
8/31/26	@ CIN	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 9
8/30/26	@ TB	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

San Francisco Giants

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U6–3–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/9/26	vs STL	W 7–6	W +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs STL	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/7/26	vs STL	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	@ NYM	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/5/26	@ NYM	W 9–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/4/26	@ NYM	L 6–10	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/3/26	@ PIT	L 2–5	L +1.5	U 9
9/2/26	@ PIT	W 5–4	W +1.5	P 9
9/1/26	@ PIT	L 12–13	W +1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ ATL	W 7–3	W +1.5	O 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Padres and Giants
	Statistic
8.4 (7.9)	Hits	7.8 (8.2)
1.5 (1.4)	Doubles	1.6 (1.6)
1.2 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.1)
13.8 (12.9)	Total Bases	12.7 (13.4)
3.5 (3.4)	Walks	2.8 (2.9)
7.8 (8.0)	Strikeouts	8.2 (8.1)
1.0 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.4 (0.4)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PadresRobbie RayConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10551.2%Under-12755.9%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-10751.7%Under-11954.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%

GiantsAnthony MolinaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-10551.2%Under-12154.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%

Starting lineups

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+75011.8%
Total Bases1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11152.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+28126.2%Under-41480.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17463.5%Under+12544.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51883.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
2Jake Cronenworth1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Cronenworth+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43318.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35578.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+79011.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32023.8%Under-47982.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+19633.8%Under-26772.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
4Luis CampusanoDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Campusano+10408.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14840.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+10408.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30524.7%Under-45582.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+20033.3%Under-27273.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25028.6%Under-36478.4%
6Xander BogaertsSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterXander Bogaerts+13806.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40219.9%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+57314.9%Under-95090.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
7Samad TaylorLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSamad Taylor+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+67013.0%Under-116092.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29874.9%
8Dustin HarrisRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDustin Harris+19005.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46617.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30424.8%Under-45381.9%
9Freddy FerminC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterFreddy Fermin+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38279.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34222.6%Under-51783.8%

San Francisco GiantsConfirmed

1Jonah CoxCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonah Cox+16405.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46017.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54284.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19966.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26072.2%
2Rafael DeversDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRafael Devers+88010.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42918.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
3Bryce Eldridge1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Eldridge+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41919.3%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31776.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
4Osleivis Basabe2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOsleivis Basabe+17405.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47017.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38779.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
5Turner HillLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTurner Hill+27003.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50216.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42280.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
6Shay Whitcomb3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterShay Whitcomb+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50316.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29125.6%Under-43181.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+90010.0%Under-170094.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
7Jung Hoo LeeRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJung Hoo Lee+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45418.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37278.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28373.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32023.8%Under-47982.7%
8Andrew KniznerC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAndrew Knizner+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44981.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+25028.6%Under-36378.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31424.2%Under-47082.5%
9Christian KossSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Koss+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55115.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31224.3%Under-46682.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31175.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+80011.1%Under-146093.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26027.8%Under-37979.1%

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