MLB matchup

09/12/20261:35 PMYankee StadiumBronx, NY79°F · Mostly sunny

Mets71 – 84vsYankees89 – 65

Sharp side

🏠 Yankees -170

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
New York Mets	3.3	35.9%
New York Yankees	4.7	64.1%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
New York Mets	B-	B-	B-
New York Yankees	B	A	A-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+141+1.5 (-151)

NYY-170-1.5 (+125)

Total 8.0Over -114Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+135+1.5 (-150)

NYY-165-1.5 (+125)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+140+1.5 (-148)

NYY-167-1.5 (+120)

Total 8.5Over +106Under -129

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+140+1.5 (-155)

NYY-165-1.5 (+130)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+147+1.5 (-152)

NYY-158-1.5 (+132)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+135+1.5 (-160)

NYY-165-1.5 (+130)

Total 8.0Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+138+1.5 (-152)

NYY-164-1.5 (+126)

Total 8.5Over +104Under -128

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+140+1.5 (-150)

NYY-170-1.5 (+125)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYM+140+1.5 (-155)

NYY-165-1.5 (+130)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

Recent form

Last 10 games

New York Mets

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U8–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/11/26	@ NYY	L 4–6	L +1.5	O 8
9/9/26	@ MIA	W 15–14	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	@ MIA	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 8
9/7/26	@ MIA	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/6/26	vs SF	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs SF	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 8
9/4/26	vs SF	W 10–6	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/2/26	@ TB	W 10–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/1/26	@ TB	L 2–6	L +1.5	O 7.5
8/31/26	@ TB	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

New York Yankees

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U6–3–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/11/26	vs NYM	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 8
9/10/26	vs COL	W 10–3	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/9/26	vs COL	W 6–1	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/8/26	vs COL	W 5–3	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/6/26	@ SD	L 3–4	L -1.5	P 7
9/5/26	@ SD	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	@ SD	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 7
9/2/26	@ LAA	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 6.5
9/1/26	@ LAA	W 7–3	W -1.5	O 7
8/31/26	@ LAA	L 1–10	L -1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Mets and Yankees
	Statistic
7.1 (8.0)	Hits	7.9 (7.9)
1.2 (1.3)	Doubles	1.5 (1.5)
1.1 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.4 (1.4)
11.7 (13.4)	Total Bases	13.7 (13.6)
3.0 (3.2)	Walks	3.6 (3.6)
8.6 (8.5)	Strikeouts	9.3 (9.3)
0.5 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	0.9 (0.9)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

MetsZac ThorntonConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+13043.5%Under-16662.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%

YankeesGerrit ColeConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-14859.7%Under+11247.2%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-11653.7%Under-11052.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%

Starting lineups

New York MetsConfirmed

1Francisco LindorSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterFrancisco Lindor+77011.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46417.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19065.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+73012.0%Under-130092.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
2Juan SotoDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJuan Soto+59614.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16662.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19065.5%Under+14241.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+78011.4%Under-142093.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
3Bo Bichette3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBo Bichette+15006.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59985.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-22869.5%Under+16937.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33677.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23069.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12255.0%Under-11353.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50583.5%
4Carson BengeRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCarson Benge+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55715.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33376.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53715.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27226.9%Under-39980.0%
5Jared Young1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Young+11008.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48117.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10009.1%Under-194095.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44281.5%
6Marcus Semien2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMarcus Semien+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+85010.5%Under-158094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33123.2%Under-49883.3%
7A.J. EwingCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterA.J. Ewing+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56315.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31324.2%Under-46782.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39879.9%
8Luis TorrensC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Torrens+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57414.8%Under-95090.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30924.4%Under-46182.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14058.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+37421.1%Under-57385.1%
9Nick MorabitoLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Morabito+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57514.8%Under-96090.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56084.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31676.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+36421.6%Under-55484.7%

New York YankeesConfirmed

1Paul Goldschmidt1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterPaul Goldschmidt+9509.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37021.3%Under-56585.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-22669.3%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12355.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32376.4%
2Aaron JudgeDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAaron Judge+54815.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43218.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16238.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10250.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
3Cody BellingerLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCody Bellinger+11807.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37221.2%Under-57085.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-23670.2%Under+17436.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12355.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9609.4%Under-184094.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
4Heliot RamosRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHeliot Ramos+10208.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42019.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13542.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33677.1%
5Amed Rosario3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAmed Rosario+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51516.3%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30375.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35821.8%Under-54484.5%
6Spencer JonesCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSpencer Jones+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48717.0%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+79011.2%Under-144093.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32076.2%
7George Lombard Jr.SS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGeorge Lombard Jr.+18005.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33977.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%
8Anthony Volpe2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAnthony Volpe+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38379.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
9Austin WellsC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Wells+17805.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35077.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21868.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25028.6%Under-36478.4%

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