MLB matchup

09/12/20264:10 PMFenway ParkBoston, MA75°F · Partly sunny

Royals67 – 88vsRed Sox84 – 71

Sharp side

🏠 Red Sox -225

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Kansas City Royals	3.4	31.7%
Boston Red Sox	5.2	68.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Kansas City Royals	C	C-	C-
Boston Red Sox	B-	A	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+183+1.5 (-114)

BOS-225-1.5 (-105)

Total 8.5Over -118Under -102

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+185+1.5 (-115)

BOS-225-1.5 (-105)

Total 8.5Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+200+1.5 (-108)

BOS-240-1.5 (-113)

Total 8.5Over -114Under -107

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+192+1.5 (-110)

BOS-235-1.5 (-110)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+195+1.5 (-110)

BOS-212-1.5 (-110)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+185+1.5 (-115)

BOS-225-1.5 (-105)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+190+1.5 (-120)

BOS-230-1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+180+1.5 (-120)

BOS-220-1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+190+1.5 (-120)

BOS-225-1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Kansas City Royals

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/11/26	@ BOS	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs ARI	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	vs ARI	L 3–5	L +1.5	U 9
9/7/26	vs ARI	L 4–5	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/5/26	vs TOR	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/4/26	vs TOR	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 10
9/3/26	vs MIA	W 7–3	W +1.5	O 9
9/2/26	vs MIA	L 6–9	L -1.5	O 9
9/1/26	vs MIA	L 3–6	L +1.5	U 10

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Boston Red Sox

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/11/26	vs KC	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs LAA	L 4–6	L -1.5	O 9
9/8/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/7/26	vs LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ BAL	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	@ BAL	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	@ BAL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 8
9/3/26	@ BAL	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/2/26	vs SEA	L 3–8	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/1/26	vs SEA	L 6–9	L +1.5	O 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Royals and Red Sox
	Statistic
7.4 (8.5)	Hits	9.0 (8.3)
1.6 (1.9)	Doubles	1.9 (1.8)
0.9 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.0)
11.9 (13.8)	Total Bases	14.8 (13.4)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	3.4 (3.2)
7.8 (7.7)	Strikeouts	8.0 (8.2)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RoyalsRandy DobnakConfirmed

Player props4 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over+12344.8%Under-15861.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-15260.3%Under+11446.7%

Red SoxRanger SuarezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-13757.8%Under+10848.1%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+15439.4%Under-20767.4%

Starting lineups

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Carter JensenC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42119.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38079.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45181.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+17736.1%Under-23970.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25772.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10551.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+39320.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33477.0%
3Salvador PerezDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54384.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-20867.5%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47382.5%
4Vinnie Pasquantino1B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14740.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37121.2%Under-56885.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-21267.9%Under+15838.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28226.2%Under-41580.6%
5Nick Loftin3B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42119.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12555.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29574.7%
6Michael Massey2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42019.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37178.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12755.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+39520.2%Under-61085.9%
7John RaveRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47517.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42280.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30375.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43681.3%
8Matthew LugoLF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12054.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33423.0%Under-50483.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34277.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31923.9%Under-47882.7%
9Kyle IsbelCF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53515.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33076.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+42119.2%Under-66086.8%

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Roman AnthonyLF
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34222.6%Under-51783.8%
Total Hits1.5Over+19833.6%Under-27073.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10050.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
2Mickey GasperDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50483.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-21768.5%Under+16238.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
3Adley RutschmanC
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43981.4%
Total Hits1.5Over+20033.3%Under-27273.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
4Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+28126.2%Under-41580.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+19334.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14341.2%Under-19966.6%
5Trevor StorySS
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53584.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-25471.8%Under+18734.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13357.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36078.3%
6Nick Sogard1B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+15139.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38020.8%Under-58285.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-21468.2%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
7Jarren DuranCF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16362.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40419.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22969.6%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10350.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
8Caleb Durbin3B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40120.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29874.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11653.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+83010.8%Under-152093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25471.8%
9Anthony Seigler2B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50016.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11446.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14759.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+86010.4%Under-158094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%

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