MLB matchup

09/12/20266:10 PMTropicana FieldSt. Petersburg, FL

Astros77 – 79vsRays95 – 60

Sharp side

🏠 Rays -149

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Houston Astros	3.5	39.8%
Tampa Bay Rays	4.5	60.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Houston Astros	B	C	B-
Tampa Bay Rays	B	B+	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+123+1.5 (-175)

TB-149-1.5 (+144)

Total 7.5Over -114Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+125+1.5 (-170)

TB-150-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+130+1.5 (-175)

TB-157-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -113Under -108

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+122+1.5 (-170)

TB-145-1.5 (+143)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+128+1.5 (-170)

TB-138-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+120+1.5 (-180)

TB-145-1.5 (+145)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+126+1.5 (-170)

TB-148-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -114Under -106

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+125+1.5 (-170)

TB-145-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

HOU+125+1.5 (-175)

TB-145-1.5 (+145)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Houston Astros

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U2–8–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/11/26	@ TB	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/10/26	@ PHI	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	@ PHI	L 7–11	L +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ PHI	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs ARI	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs ARI	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9
9/4/26	vs ARI	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs CHW	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	vs CHW	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/11/26	vs HOU	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/10/26	@ ATL	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 8
9/9/26	@ ATL	W 7–2	W +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ ATL	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ TEX	L 6–8	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/5/26	@ TEX	W 6–3	W -1.5	O 7
9/4/26	@ TEX	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/3/26	@ TEX	L 0–6	L -1.5	U 8
9/2/26	vs NYM	L 4–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/1/26	vs NYM	W 6–2	W -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Astros and Rays
	Statistic
7.3 (8.1)	Hits	8.8 (8.7)
1.3 (1.5)	Doubles	1.4 (1.4)
1.1 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.1)
12.0 (13.7)	Total Bases	13.6 (13.5)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
8.4 (8.2)	Strikeouts	7.2 (7.2)
0.3 (0.3)	Stolen Bases	1.0 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

AstrosPeter LambertConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+13043.5%Under-16662.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-18865.3%Under+14041.7%

RaysIan SeymourConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-12355.2%Under-10350.7%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18364.7%

Starting lineups

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18364.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43618.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+81011.0%Under-148093.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28725.8%Under-42480.9%
2Isaac Paredes3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+9509.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+14141.5%Under-18965.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41919.3%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
3Jose Altuve2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+10408.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45318.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12856.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+82010.9%Under-152093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38079.2%
4Yainer DiazDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+12407.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+14840.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43718.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-21167.8%Under+15738.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
5Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23829.6%Under-34477.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+69012.7%Under-122092.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31224.3%Under-46582.3%
6Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+9509.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
7Cam SmithRF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55215.3%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+82010.9%Under-150093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30675.4%
8Taylor TrammellLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Trammell+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Hits0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48082.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19633.8%Under-28073.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44481.6%
9Christian VazquezC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Vazquez+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Hits0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+25827.9%Under-37679.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+42818.9%Under-67087.0%

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYandy Diaz+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34522.5%Under-52383.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+17536.4%Under-23670.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12555.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16261.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26072.2%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39620.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+61014.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41119.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-27773.5%Under+20333.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
4Liam HicksC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49316.9%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20266.9%
5Victor Mesa Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVictor Mesa Jr.+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44718.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14459.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51816.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
6Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+49002.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+16338.0%Under-21968.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44118.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23570.1%Under+17436.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35878.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11247.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32876.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26627.3%Under-38979.6%
7Cedric MullinsCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCedric Mullins+15806.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53315.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-32076.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+44318.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
8Richie Palacios2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRichie Palacios+28003.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52715.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11252.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42280.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27473.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51916.2%Under-84089.4%
9Jorge MateoSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Mateo+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56914.9%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26827.2%Under-39279.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+32923.3%Under-49583.2%

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