MLB matchup

09/12/20267:15 PMTruist ParkAtlanta, GA79°F · Intermittent clouds

Phillies85 – 70vsBraves91 – 64

Sharp side

✈️ Phillies +120

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Philadelphia Phillies	4.3	48.5%
Atlanta Braves	4.4	51.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	B-	B
Atlanta Braves	B+	B-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+120+1.5 (-171)

ATL-145-1.5 (+141)

Total 8.5Over -103Under -117

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+118+1.5 (-175)

ATL-145-1.5 (+145)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+118+1.5 (-180)

ATL-139-1.5 (+148)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+115+1.5 (-190)

ATL-135-1.5 (+158)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+124+1.5 (-165)

ATL-134-1.5 (+145)

Total 8.0Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+120+1.5 (-180)

ATL-145-1.5 (+145)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+116+1.5 (-188)

ATL-134-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+115+1.5 (-180)

ATL-140-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+120+1.5 (-180)

ATL-140-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U5–4–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/11/26	@ ATL	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 7
9/10/26	vs HOU	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs HOU	W 11–7	W -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs HOU	L 5–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/7/26	vs ATL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	vs ATL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs ATL	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/4/26	vs ATL	L 2–5	L +1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ ARI	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/1/26	@ ARI	W 7–1	W -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Atlanta Braves

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/11/26	vs PHI	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 7
9/10/26	vs TB	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 8
9/9/26	vs TB	L 2–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs TB	L 1–7	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/7/26	@ PHI	L 0–1	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	@ PHI	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/5/26	@ PHI	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/4/26	@ PHI	W 5–2	W -1.5	P 7
9/2/26	@ WSH	W 9–0	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/1/26	@ WSH	L 5–9	L -1.5	O 10

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Phillies and Braves
	Statistic
7.9 (8.1)	Hits	8.2 (8.4)
1.4 (1.5)	Doubles	1.5 (1.6)
1.2 (1.2)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.3)
13.2 (13.5)	Total Bases	13.6 (14.0)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	2.9 (3.0)
8.5 (8.4)	Strikeouts	8.0 (8.0)
0.6 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.5)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PhilliesTim MayzaConfirmed

BravesTyler MahleConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-11553.5%Under-11152.6%

Starting lineups

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Schwarber+49116.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46817.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-18064.3%Under+13542.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36821.4%Under-56284.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-24871.3%Under+18335.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38179.2%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18865.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41919.3%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19466.0%Under+14540.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12943.7%Under-18064.3%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+29003.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35122.2%Under-53284.2%
Total Hits1.5Over+19633.8%Under-26772.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30575.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51883.8%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Bohm+17605.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+15339.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44618.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31175.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31175.7%
6Bryson Stott3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryson Stott+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50516.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31776.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+58914.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
7Brandon MarshLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Marsh+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51616.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39079.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40680.2%
8J.T. RealmutoC
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterJ.T. Realmuto+17605.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35077.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36678.5%
9Justin CrawfordCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJustin Crawford+28003.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34722.4%Under-52584.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32476.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+49516.8%Under-80088.9%

Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Drake BaldwinDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDrake Baldwin+12207.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23470.1%Under+17436.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10851.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
2Ronald Acuna Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterRonald Acuna Jr.+84010.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37221.2%Under-56985.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-24070.6%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+37021.3%Under-56585.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
3Matt Olson1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt Olson+9109.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39420.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-21267.9%Under+15838.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18464.8%
4Ozzie Albies2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOzzie Albies+12607.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35921.8%Under-54684.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16462.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
5Michael Harris IICF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Harris II+13606.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-26972.9%Under+19833.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13757.8%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10149.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42280.8%
6Mauricio DubonLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMauricio Dubon+24004.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+15239.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16238.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44481.6%
7Austin Riley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Riley+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48717.0%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24871.3%
8Sean MurphyC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSean Murphy+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56215.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35578.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
9Ha-Seong KimSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterHa-Seong Kim+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47582.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21868.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial