CFB matchup
09/12/202610:00 PMFalcon StadiumUSAF Academy, CO

North Dakota State4 – 0vsAir Force1 – 1

Sharp side
✈️ North Dakota State -1.5
Model value
Sharp total
↑ Over 48.5
Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
North Dakota State Bison28.065.3%
Air Force Falcons22.534.7%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamOffenseDefenseOverall
North Dakota State BisonN/AN/AN/A
Air Force FalconsBC+B-
Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineSpread
NDSU-122-1.5 (-115)
AF+102+1.5 (-105)
Total 48.5Over -110Under -110
BetMGM
TeamMoneylineSpread
NDSU-120-2.0 (-108)
AF+100+2.0 (-110)
Total 48.5Over -110Under -108
BetRivers
TeamMoneylineSpread
NDSU-127-1.5 (-113)
AF+102+1.5 (-110)
Total 48.5Over +100Under -122
Caesars
TeamMoneylineSpread
NDSU-125-1.5 (-110)
AF+106+1.5 (-109)
Total 47.5Over -108Under -112
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylineSpread
NDSU-120-1.5 (-110)
AF+100+1.5 (-110)
Total 48.0Over -110Under -110
FanDuel
TeamMoneylineSpread
NDSU-122-2.5 (-102)
AF+102+2.5 (-120)
Total 48.5Over -114Under -106
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
NDSU-120-1.5 (-110)
AF+100+1.5 (-110)
Total 48.5Over -105Under -115
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
NDSU-125-1.5 (-105)
AF+105+1.5 (-115)
Total 48.5Over -115Under -105
Recent form

Last 10 games

North Dakota State Bison

Overall9–1–0W–L–TATS4–5–0W–L–P · 9/10 gradedO/U4–5–0O–U–P · 9/10 graded
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
9/5/26vs FORW 38–0L -41.5U 54.5
8/29/26vs JXSTW 33–7W -6.5U 46.5
12/6/25vs ILSTL 28–29
11/22/25vs STMNW 62–7W -33.5O 51.5
11/15/25vs UNIW 48–16L -34O 47.5
11/8/25@ UNDW 15–10L -10.5U 53.5
11/1/25vs YSUW 38–30L -26.5O 60.5
10/25/25@ SDSTW 38–7W -9U 45.5
10/18/25@ INSTW 38–7L -33.5U 56.5
10/11/25vs SIUW 45–17W -20O 58.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Air Force Falcons

Overall4–6–0W–L–TATS4–5–0W–L–P · 9/10 gradedO/U4–6–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
9/5/26vs DUQW 34–0W -31.5U 55.5
11/28/25@ CSUW 42–21O 47.5
11/22/25vs UNML 3–20L +3.5U 53.5
11/15/25@ CONNL 16–26L +7.5U 64.5
11/8/25@ SJSUW 26–16W +6.5U 68.5
11/1/25vs ARMYL 17–20L +1.5U 48.5
10/18/25vs WYOW 24–21L -3.5U 56.5
10/11/25@ UNLVL 48–51W +7.5O 66.5
10/4/25@ NAVYL 31–34W +13.5O 51.5
9/27/25vs HAWL 35–44L -6.5O 52.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for North Dakota State and Air Force
Statistic
327.2 (435.5)Total Yards357.6 (408.6)
163.5 (231.4)Passing Yards114.2 (133.5)
12.2 (14.8)Pass Completions7.4 (7.8)
19.5 (21.2)Pass Attempts13.3 (13.5)
163.8 (204.2)Rushing Yards243.4 (275.1)
39.0 (41.1)Rushing Attempts54.4 (56.2)
16.4 (20.3)First Downs20.9 (22.4)



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