CFB matchup
09/12/202610:30 PMBulldog StadiumFresno, CA

Sacramento State1 – 3vsFresno State2 – 1

Sharp side
✈️ Sacramento State +17.5
Model value
Sharp total
↑ Over 43.5
Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Sacramento State Hornets18.421.0%
Fresno State Bulldogs29.879.0%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamOffenseDefenseOverall
Sacramento State HornetsN/AN/AN/A
Fresno State BulldogsD+B-C
Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineSpread
SAC+625+17.5 (-110)
FRES-950-17.5 (-110)
Total 43.5Over -115Under -105
BetMGM
TeamMoneylineSpread
SAC+700+18.0 (-112)
FRES-1000-18.0 (-105)
Total 43.5Over -110Under -108
BetRivers
TeamMoneylineSpread
SAC+700+18.0 (-114)
FRES-1250-18.0 (-109)
Total 44.5Over -108Under -117
Caesars
TeamMoneylineSpread
SAC+675+17.5 (-110)
FRES-1200-17.5 (-110)
Total 44.5Over -112Under -108
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylineSpread
SAC+675+17.5 (-110)
FRES-1000-17.5 (-110)
Total 44.0Over -110Under -110
FanDuel
TeamMoneylineSpread
SAC+740+17.5 (-105)
FRES-1250-17.5 (-115)
Total 43.5Over -115Under -105
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
SAC+750+18.5 (-115)
FRES-1200-18.5 (-105)
Total 43.5Over -115Under -105
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
SAC+750+17.5 (-105)
FRES-1400-17.5 (-115)
Total 43.5Over -115Under -105
Recent form

Last 10 games

Sacramento State Hornets

Overall6–4–0W–L–TATS5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
9/5/26vs MVSUW 52–0W -38.5U 56.5
8/29/26@ EMUL 17–28L +9.5U 52.5
11/22/25@ UCDL 27–31W +5U 63.5
11/15/25vs IDHOW 23–20L -7U 59.5
11/8/25@ PRSTW 52–24W -20.5O 59.5
11/1/25@ EWUW 35–13W -8.5U 59.5
10/24/25vs MONTL 35–49L +6O 61.5
10/18/25vs UNCOW 40–35L -15O 54.5
10/11/25@ WEBW 55–27W -8.5O 55.5
9/27/25vs CPL 24–32L -18U 57.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Fresno State Bulldogs

Overall6–4–0W–L–TATS4–6–0W–L–PO/U2–8–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
9/4/26@ USCL 0–39L +21.5U 51.5
12/27/25vs M-OHW 18–3W -5.5U 40.5
11/29/25@ SJSUW 41–14W -3.5O 44.5
11/22/25vs USUL 17–28L -1.5U 50.5
11/15/25vs WYOW 24–3W -2.5U 40.5
11/1/25@ BOISW 30–7W +17.5U 47.5
10/25/25vs SDSUL 0–23L +3.5U 45.5
10/10/25@ CSUL 21–49L -5.5O 48.5
10/4/25vs NEVW 20–17L -13.5U 46.5
9/20/25@ HAWW 23–21L -2.5U 47.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Sacramento State and Fresno State
Statistic
362.0 (443.6)Total Yards366.8 (332.3)
165.6 (174.2)Passing Yards189.2 (180.5)
15.6 (12.5)Pass Completions18.5 (17.7)
28.5 (20.8)Pass Attempts28.0 (28.5)
196.5 (269.4)Rushing Yards177.6 (151.8)
45.3 (46.8)Rushing Attempts40.5 (37.7)
18.9 (21.0)First Downs19.8 (17.9)



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