MLB matchup

09/13/20263:05 PMFenway ParkBoston, MA68°F · Rain

Royals67 – 88vsRed Sox84 – 71

Sharp side

🏠 Red Sox -194

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Kansas City Royals	3.2	36.7%
Boston Red Sox	4.5	63.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Kansas City Royals	C	B-	C
Boston Red Sox	B-	A	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+159+1.5 (-137)

BOS-194-1.5 (+114)

Total 7.5Over -106Under -113

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+165+1.5 (-135)

BOS-200-1.5 (+110)

Total 7.5Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+163+1.5 (-134)

BOS-200-1.5 (+110)

Total 7.5Over -103Under -120

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+158+1.5 (-130)

BOS-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+166+1.5 (-140)

BOS-180-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over +105Under -125

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+160+1.5 (-140)

BOS-195-1.5 (+115)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+166+1.5 (-140)

BOS-198-1.5 (+116)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -122

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+160+1.5 (-140)

BOS-195-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+165+1.5 (-145)

BOS-195-1.5 (+120)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Kansas City Royals

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/12/26	@ BOS	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	@ BOS	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs ARI	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	vs ARI	L 3–5	L +1.5	U 9
9/7/26	vs ARI	L 4–5	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/5/26	vs TOR	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/4/26	vs TOR	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 10
9/3/26	vs MIA	W 7–3	W +1.5	O 9
9/2/26	vs MIA	L 6–9	L -1.5	O 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Boston Red Sox

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/12/26	vs KC	W 5–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	vs KC	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs LAA	L 4–6	L -1.5	O 9
9/8/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/7/26	vs LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ BAL	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	@ BAL	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	@ BAL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 8
9/3/26	@ BAL	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/2/26	vs SEA	L 3–8	L -1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Royals and Red Sox
	Statistic
7.2 (8.4)	Hits	8.5 (8.4)
1.5 (1.9)	Doubles	1.8 (1.8)
0.8 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.0)
11.6 (13.8)	Total Bases	13.7 (13.5)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
7.9 (7.7)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.2)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RoyalsNoah CameronConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-14559.2%Under+11446.7%

Red SoxPayton TolleConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over+10050.0%Under-12755.9%

Starting lineups

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Nick Loftin3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Loftin+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46317.8%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49283.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBobby Witt Jr.+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35322.1%Under-53584.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22969.6%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28474.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42881.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
3Jac CaglianoneDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJac Caglianone+11208.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18064.3%Under+13542.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+39420.2%Under-61085.9%
4Salvador Perez1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSalvador Perez+89010.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58285.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19466.0%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56184.9%
5Michael Massey2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Massey+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54515.5%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30524.7%Under-45381.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+43818.6%Under-69087.3%
6Matthew LugoRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMatthew Lugo+18805.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+38620.6%Under-59485.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36378.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43881.4%
7Isaac CollinsLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Collins+18005.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51316.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46382.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
8Luke MaileC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuke Maile+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+79011.2%Under-144093.5%
Total Hits0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+39820.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39679.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
9Tyler TolbertCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTyler Tolbert+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+72012.2%Under-126092.6%
Total Hits0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+44218.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41280.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+49216.9%Under-79088.8%

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Roman AnthonyLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRoman Anthony+10208.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38320.7%Under-58985.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-22769.4%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29574.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17964.2%
2Jahmai JonesDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJahmai Jones+80011.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43118.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
3Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterWilyer Abreu+90010.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35322.1%Under-53684.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22469.1%Under+16637.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14659.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10808.5%Under-220095.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
4Willson Contreras1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWillson Contreras+66013.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37321.1%Under-57085.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-22268.9%Under+16537.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13256.9%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15660.9%
5Adley RutschmanC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAdley Rutschman+15606.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+14141.5%Under-18865.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38220.7%Under-58785.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-22268.9%Under+16537.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27273.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
6Trevor StorySS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTrevor Story+15606.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48317.2%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12856.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29225.5%Under-43281.2%
7Caleb Durbin3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCaleb Durbin+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45018.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33477.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10608.6%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
8Nick Sogard2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Sogard+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50716.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26627.3%Under-39079.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
9Nate EatonCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNate Eaton+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+68012.8%Under-120092.3%
Total Hits0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13357.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32623.5%Under-49083.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24828.7%Under-36178.3%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial