MLB matchup

09/13/20262:20 PMWrigley FieldChicago, IL72°F · Mostly cloudy

Pirates78 – 77vsCubs86 – 69

Sharp side

🏠 Cubs -171

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Pittsburgh Pirates	3.6	37.6%
Chicago Cubs	4.8	62.4%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	C+	C+
Chicago Cubs	A-	A-	A-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+141+1.5 (-162)

CHC-171-1.5 (+134)

Total 7.0Over -110Under -110

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+140+1.5 (-155)

CHC-170-1.5 (+125)

Total 7.0Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+133+1.5 (-167)

CHC-159-1.5 (+138)

Total 7.0Over -112Under -129

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+148+1.5 (-150)

CHC-175-1.5 (+126)

Total 7.0Over -115Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+155+1.5 (-145)

CHC-167-1.5 (+125)

Total 7.0Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+140+1.5 (-165)

CHC-170-1.5 (+135)

Total 7.0Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+136+1.5 (-164)

CHC-162-1.5 (+136)

Total 6.5Over -142Under +116

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+140+1.5 (-165)

CHC-165-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over +115Under -140

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PIT+140+1.5 (-160)

CHC-165-1.5 (+135)

Total 6.5Over -145Under +120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U2–7–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/12/26	@ CHC	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/11/26	@ CHC	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/10/26	@ CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/9/26	@ CHW	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ CHW	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs SF	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 9
9/2/26	vs SF	L 4–5	L -1.5	P 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Chicago Cubs

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U5–4–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/12/26	vs PIT	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9.5
9/11/26	vs PIT	W 12–2	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/9/26	@ MIL	L 6–8	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/8/26	@ MIL	L 3–4	W +1.5	P 7
9/7/26	@ MIL	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 8
9/6/26	@ MIA	L 3–10	L -1.5	O 8
9/5/26	@ MIA	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/4/26	@ MIA	W 6–1	W -1.5	U 8
9/3/26	vs MIL	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/2/26	vs MIL	L 5–9	L +1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Pirates and Cubs
	Statistic
7.6 (8.6)	Hits	8.2 (8.6)
1.3 (1.5)	Doubles	1.6 (1.7)
0.9 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.4)
11.8 (13.6)	Total Bases	14.1 (14.8)
3.3 (3.5)	Walks	3.9 (4.0)
9.3 (9.3)	Strikeouts	8.5 (8.5)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PiratesBubba ChandlerConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-10551.2%Under-12154.8%

CubsMatthew BoydConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-10250.5%Under-12555.6%

Starting lineups

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Konnor GriffinSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKonnor Griffin+13806.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59085.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20166.8%Under+15040.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37278.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41019.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27226.9%Under-39980.0%
2Oneil CruzCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOneil Cruz+9609.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47317.5%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38879.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+54915.4%Under-90090.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
3Bryan ReynoldsLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan Reynolds+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37820.9%Under-58085.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35878.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
4Rafael Flores Jr.1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRafael Flores Jr.+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32676.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23829.6%Under-34577.5%
5Nick Gonzales2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Gonzales+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42818.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42380.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30025.0%Under-44581.7%
6Ryan O'HearnDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan O'Hearn+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48917.0%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14141.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30824.5%Under-45882.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30624.6%Under-45682.0%
7Jake MangumRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Mangum+30003.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46717.6%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30025.0%Under-44681.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22231.1%Under-32076.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-11052.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+63013.7%Under-108091.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33722.9%Under-50983.6%
8Jared Triolo3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Triolo+19205.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42581.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+76011.6%Under-138093.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30124.9%Under-44681.7%
9Henry DavisC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHenry Davis+13806.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33922.8%Under-51283.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+25927.9%Under-37879.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32223.7%Under-48282.8%

Chicago CubsConfirmed

1Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterPete Crow-Armstrong+70012.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51583.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
2Seiya SuzukiRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSeiya Suzuki+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37521.1%Under-57485.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
3Michael Busch1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Busch+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15761.1%
4Alex Bregman3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAlex Bregman+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36121.7%Under-55084.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25171.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
5Ian HappLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIan Happ+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18164.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35478.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
6Nico HoernerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterNico Hoerner+27003.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+16338.0%Under-21968.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45018.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-23269.9%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11446.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+78011.4%Under-140093.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33777.1%
7Michael ConfortoDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Conforto+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59514.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26927.1%Under-39579.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27473.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
8Pedro Ramirez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterPedro Ramirez+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41319.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+82010.9%Under-150093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
9Miguel AmayaC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMiguel Amaya+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58814.5%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14459.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31724.0%Under-47482.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31976.1%

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