MLB matchup

09/15/20266:40 PMPNC ParkPittsburgh, PA82°F · Mostly sunny

Brewers97 – 58vsPirates78 – 77

Sharp side

🏠 Pirates +177

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Milwaukee Brewers	4.5	62.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates	3.3	37.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Milwaukee Brewers	A-	A	A
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	B-	C+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-217-1.5 (-126)

PIT+177+1.5 (+104)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-220-1.5 (-125)

PIT+180+1.5 (+105)

Total 7.5Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-225-1.5 (-125)

PIT+180+1.5 (+102)

Total 7.5Over -107Under -114

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-220-1.5 (-125)

PIT+180+1.5 (+105)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-200-1.5 (-125)

PIT+184+1.5 (+105)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-215-1.5 (-125)

PIT+175+1.5 (+105)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-215-1.5 (-120)

PIT+180+1.5 (+100)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-220-1.5 (-125)

PIT+180+1.5 (+105)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-210-1.5 (-125)

PIT+175+1.5 (+105)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Milwaukee Brewers

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U5–4–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/13/26	vs CIN	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 8
9/12/26	vs CIN	W 13–9	W -1.5	O 9
9/11/26	vs CIN	W 20–0	W -1.5	O 8
9/9/26	vs CHC	W 8–6	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/8/26	vs CHC	W 4–3	L -1.5	P 7
9/7/26	vs CHC	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/6/26	@ CIN	L 8–12	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/5/26	@ CIN	L 3–5	L -1.5	U 9
9/4/26	@ CIN	W 10–7	W -1.5	O 9.5
9/3/26	@ CHC	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U2–7–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/13/26	@ CHC	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
9/12/26	@ CHC	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/11/26	@ CHC	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/10/26	@ CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/9/26	@ CHW	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ CHW	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 9
9/3/26	vs SF	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Brewers and Pirates
	Statistic
8.3 (8.6)	Hits	7.4 (8.6)
1.6 (1.7)	Doubles	1.3 (1.5)
0.9 (0.9)	Home Runs	0.9 (1.1)
12.8 (13.5)	Total Bases	11.5 (13.7)
4.0 (4.1)	Walks	3.2 (3.5)
8.4 (8.4)	Strikeouts	9.4 (9.3)
0.9 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.8)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

BrewersJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%

Total Hits Allowed3.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%

Total Strikeouts8.5Over+11147.4%Under-14158.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%

PiratesLake BacharConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed0.5Over-18064.3%Under+13542.6%

Total Hits Allowed1.5Over-18064.3%Under+13542.6%

Total Outs Recorded6.5Over+11147.4%Under-14358.8%

Total Strikeouts2.5Over+10748.3%Under-13757.8%

Total Walks Allowed0.5Over-23069.7%Under+17037.0%

Starting lineups

Milwaukee BrewersConfirmed

1Garrett MitchellCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterGarrett Mitchell+10208.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19265.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40719.7%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11954.3%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21631.6%Under-31175.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12355.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51683.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
2Jackson ChourioLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Chourio+70012.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32623.5%Under-48983.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+18235.5%Under-24771.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15560.8%Under+11646.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13156.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14258.7%Under+10349.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+58014.7%Under-97090.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
3Brice Turang2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBrice Turang+14806.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32323.6%Under-48482.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-22969.6%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15360.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10851.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+40120.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
4William ContrerasC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWilliam Contreras+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35821.8%Under-54484.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-24070.6%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
5Jake Bauers1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Bauers+83010.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38820.5%Under-59785.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24871.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18364.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+69012.7%Under-120092.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-13357.1%Under-10451.0%
6Christian YelichDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Yelich+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43018.9%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19766.3%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+77011.5%Under-140093.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
7Luis LaraRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Lara+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36621.5%Under-55984.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19265.8%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
8Joey OrtizSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJoey Ortiz+19404.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46517.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12255.0%Under-11353.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+75011.8%Under-134093.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26972.9%
9David Hamilton3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDavid Hamilton+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45518.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34922.3%Under-52984.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Konnor GriffinSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKonnor Griffin+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46817.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30924.4%Under-46082.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47917.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36678.5%
2Brandon Lowe2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Lowe+10808.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52516.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42380.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28373.9%
3Bryan ReynoldsRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan Reynolds+13806.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51516.3%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44481.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
4Oneil CruzCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOneil Cruz+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58614.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38779.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23670.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21868.6%
5Nick Gonzales3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Gonzales+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56115.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-17063.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31324.2%Under-46882.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30624.6%Under-45582.0%
6Ryan O'HearnDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan O'Hearn+18405.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57114.9%Under-95090.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33622.9%Under-50783.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21631.6%Under-31175.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
7Rafael Flores Jr.C
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRafael Flores Jr.+15006.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47717.3%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41080.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19265.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27826.5%Under-40980.4%
8Spencer Horwitz1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSpencer Horwitz+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45081.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33276.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21631.6%Under-31075.6%
9Jake MangumLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Mangum+30003.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+73012.0%Under-130092.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+37721.0%Under-57885.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38479.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+70012.5%Under-124092.5%

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