MLB matchup

09/15/20269:40 PMChase FieldPhoenix, AZ

Marlins76 – 79vsDiamondbacks81 – 74

Sharp side

✈️ Marlins +128

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Miami Marlins	4.3	44.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks	4.9	55.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Miami Marlins	C	C	C
Arizona Diamondbacks	B-	C+	C+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+128+1.5 (-165)

ARI-155-1.5 (+136)

Total 8.5Over -122Under +101

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+135+1.5 (-160)

ARI-160-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+140+1.5 (-150)

ARI-167-1.5 (+123)

Total 8.5Over -109Under -112

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+143+1.5 (-160)

ARI-170-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+139+1.5 (-150)

ARI-150-1.5 (+130)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+130+1.5 (-170)

ARI-155-1.5 (+140)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+132+1.5 (-162)

ARI-156-1.5 (+134)

Total 8.5Over -120Under -102

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+130+1.5 (-165)

ARI-155-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+135+1.5 (-160)

ARI-155-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

Miami Marlins

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U8–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/14/26	@ ARI	L 7–8	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/13/26	vs LAD	W 6–4	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/12/26	vs LAD	W 4–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/11/26	vs LAD	L 2–6	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/9/26	vs NYM	L 14–15	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	vs NYM	L 5–7	L +1.5	O 8
9/7/26	vs NYM	L 4–9	L -1.5	O 8
9/6/26	vs CHC	W 10–3	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs CHC	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/4/26	vs CHC	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line2–8–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/14/26	vs MIA	W 8–7	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/13/26	vs TEX	L 6–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/12/26	vs TEX	L 2–6	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	vs TEX	W 9–1	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/9/26	@ KC	L 2–5	L -1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ KC	W 5–3	W -1.5	U 9
9/7/26	@ KC	W 5–4	L -1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	@ HOU	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8
9/5/26	@ HOU	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9
9/4/26	@ HOU	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Marlins and Diamondbacks
	Statistic
8.3 (8.4)	Hits	8.6 (8.2)
1.5 (1.6)	Doubles	1.8 (1.7)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.0)
13.2 (13.4)	Total Bases	14.1 (13.3)
3.3 (3.4)	Walks	3.5 (3.3)
8.2 (8.2)	Strikeouts	7.3 (7.4)
1.0 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

MarlinsJanson JunkConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%

Total Strikeouts2.5Over-11954.3%Under-10751.7%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19265.8%

DiamondbacksMichael SorokaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+13143.3%Under-16862.7%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%

Starting lineups

Miami MarlinsConfirmed

1Kyle StowersDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Stowers+60014.3%
Total Bases1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48282.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-25972.1%Under+19134.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23069.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23670.2%
2Heriberto HernandezLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterHeriberto Hernandez+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56184.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-20166.8%Under+15040.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+79011.2%Under-142093.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
3Otto LopezSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOtto Lopez+15206.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13256.9%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11546.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56184.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
4Griffin ConineRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGriffin Conine+9609.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42519.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
5Javier Sanoja2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJavier Sanoja+23004.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14740.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-22769.4%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32323.6%Under-48582.9%
6Jakob MarseeCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJakob Marsee+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38720.5%Under-59685.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30675.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+45018.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
7Agustin RamirezC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAgustin Ramirez+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41419.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34677.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+81011.0%Under-148093.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40380.1%
8Graham Pauley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGraham Pauley+17405.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47217.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27226.9%Under-39980.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+40219.9%Under-62086.1%
9Deyvison De Los Santos1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDeyvison De Los Santos+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59514.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58185.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59085.5%

Arizona DiamondbacksConfirmed

1Lars NootbaarLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLars Nootbaar+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+14141.5%Under-18965.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36821.4%Under-56384.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-19666.2%Under+14640.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
2Ketel Marte2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKetel Marte+9109.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49183.1%
Total Hits1.5Over+19933.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
3Gabriel MorenoC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGabriel Moreno+15006.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15160.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46882.4%
Total Hits1.5Over+19434.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
4Geraldo PerdomoSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterGeraldo Perdomo+20004.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34722.4%Under-52684.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-23970.5%Under+17636.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13256.9%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+69012.7%Under-120092.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
5Corbin CarrollRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCorbin Carroll+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29025.6%Under-42981.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-25071.4%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18965.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49216.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
6Nolan Arenado3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNolan Arenado+13207.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37721.0%Under-57885.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19265.8%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
7Jesus SanchezDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJesus Sanchez+13207.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45518.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31724.0%Under-47482.6%
8Pavin Smith1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterPavin Smith+15606.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42080.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
9Jordan LawlarCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJordan Lawlar+18605.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45118.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37679.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15460.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+73012.0%Under-130092.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39679.8%

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