MLB matchup

09/16/20261:40 PMTarget FieldMinneapolis, MN70°F · Mostly sunny

Yankees89 – 65vsTwins72 – 83

Sharp side

🏠 Twins +135

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
New York Yankees	4.4	59.5%
Minnesota Twins	3.5	40.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
New York Yankees	B	A	A-
Minnesota Twins	C	B-	C+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-163-1.5 (+102)

MIN+135+1.5 (-122)

Total 8.5Over -107Under -112

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-175-1.5 (+100)

MIN+145+1.5 (-120)

Total 8.0Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-177-1.5 (-103)

MIN+145+1.5 (-120)

Total 7.5Over -129Under +106

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-180-1.5 (-115)

MIN+152+1.5 (-105)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-173-1.5 (-105)

MIN+160+1.5 (-115)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-175-1.5 (-105)

MIN+145+1.5 (-115)

Total 8.0Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-176-1.5 (-108)

MIN+148+1.5 (-111)

Total 8.5Over +102Under +110

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-170-1.5 (-105)

MIN+140+1.5 (-115)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

NYY-175-1.5 (-105)

MIN+150+1.5 (-115)

Total 8.5Over +105Under -125

Recent form

Last 10 games

New York Yankees

Overall8–2–0W–L–TRun line8–2–0W–L–PO/U6–3–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	@ MIN	W 8–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/14/26	@ MIN	W 8–3	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/13/26	vs NYM	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 8
9/12/26	vs NYM	L 2–12	L -1.5	O 8
9/11/26	vs NYM	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 8
9/10/26	vs COL	W 10–3	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/9/26	vs COL	W 6–1	W -1.5	U 9.5
9/8/26	vs COL	W 5–3	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/6/26	@ SD	L 3–4	L -1.5	P 7
9/5/26	@ SD	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Minnesota Twins

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	vs NYY	L 1–8	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/14/26	vs NYY	L 3–8	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/13/26	vs CLE	L 2–9	L -1.5	O 8
9/12/26	vs CLE	W 4–3	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	vs CLE	L 2–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/9/26	@ DET	L 2–7	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	@ DET	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/7/26	@ DET	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/6/26	@ CHW	L 1–10	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/5/26	@ CHW	W 6–4	W +1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Yankees and Twins
	Statistic
7.7 (7.9)	Hits	7.4 (8.1)
1.4 (1.4)	Doubles	1.4 (1.6)
1.3 (1.4)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.1)
13.2 (13.7)	Total Bases	12.0 (13.4)
3.5 (3.6)	Walks	2.8 (3.1)
9.3 (9.2)	Strikeouts	8.3 (8.2)
0.9 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

YankeesCarlos RodonConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10648.5%Under-13557.4%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%

TwinsZebby MatthewsConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-20767.4%Under+15539.2%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-14058.3%Under+10947.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%

Starting lineups

New York YankeesConfirmed

1Ben RiceDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32623.5%Under-48983.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-26272.4%Under+19334.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17736.1%Under-24971.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13457.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
2Cody BellingerLF
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32323.6%Under-48582.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-26372.5%Under+19434.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10952.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23970.5%
3Aaron JudgeRF
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36421.6%Under-55584.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-21468.2%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12355.2%Under-11252.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
4Luis Garcia Jr.1B
5Spencer JonesCF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44318.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
6George Lombard Jr.SS
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46117.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
7Ryan McMahon3B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44118.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33076.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
8Austin WellsC
Player props6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55115.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22168.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
9Anthony Volpe2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40719.7%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40380.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18464.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%

Minnesota TwinsConfirmed

1Luke KeaschallRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50583.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46982.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14058.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
2Austin MartinLF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40419.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29525.3%Under-43881.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15660.9%
3Ryan JeffersC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40719.7%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
4Josh BellDH
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44518.3%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
5Kody Clemens1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30975.6%
6Royce Lewis3B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17864.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32476.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28574.0%
7Emmanuel RodriguezCF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45318.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12744.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41380.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34177.3%
8Ryan Kreidler2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10149.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32323.6%Under-48582.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
9Ben RossSS
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51916.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45181.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%

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