MLB matchup

09/16/20266:40 PMPNC ParkPittsburgh, PA85°F · Intermittent clouds

Brewers97 – 58vsPirates78 – 77

Sharp side

🏠 Pirates +108

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Milwaukee Brewers	4.3	54.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates	3.8	45.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Milwaukee Brewers	A-	A-	A-
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	B	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-130-1.5 (+131)

PIT+108+1.5 (-159)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-135-1.5 (+125)

PIT+110+1.5 (-155)

Total 7.5Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-132-1.5 (+128)

PIT+110+1.5 (-159)

Total 7.5Over -103Under -120

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-135-1.5 (+130)

PIT+115+1.5 (-155)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-126-1.5 (+135)

PIT+116+1.5 (-155)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-130-1.5 (+130)

PIT+110+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-130-1.5 (+134)

PIT+110+1.5 (-162)

Total 7.5Over -104Under -118

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-130-1.5 (+130)

PIT+110+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-130-1.5 (+135)

PIT+110+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Milwaukee Brewers

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U5–4–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	@ PIT	W 5–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	vs CIN	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 8
9/12/26	vs CIN	W 13–9	W -1.5	O 9
9/11/26	vs CIN	W 20–0	W -1.5	O 8
9/9/26	vs CHC	W 8–6	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/8/26	vs CHC	W 4–3	L -1.5	P 7
9/7/26	vs CHC	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/6/26	@ CIN	L 8–12	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/5/26	@ CIN	L 3–5	L -1.5	U 9
9/4/26	@ CIN	W 10–7	W -1.5	O 9.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U2–7–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	vs MIL	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	@ CHC	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
9/12/26	@ CHC	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/11/26	@ CHC	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/10/26	@ CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/9/26	@ CHW	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ CHW	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/4/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Brewers and Pirates
	Statistic
8.0 (8.6)	Hits	7.9 (8.7)
1.6 (1.7)	Doubles	1.4 (1.5)
0.8 (0.9)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.1)
12.4 (13.5)	Total Bases	12.3 (13.7)
3.9 (4.1)	Walks	3.3 (3.5)
8.5 (8.4)	Strikeouts	9.4 (9.3)
0.9 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.8)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

BrewersLogan HendersonConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+10149.8%Under-13357.1%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over+12544.4%Under-15961.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+16338.0%Under-21968.7%

PiratesJared JonesConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-13457.3%Under+10548.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%

Starting lineups

Milwaukee BrewersConfirmed

1Brice Turang2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBrice Turang+12007.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33523.0%Under-50483.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-21668.4%Under+16138.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
2Jackson ChourioLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Chourio+9809.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16261.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37021.3%Under-56685.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-24771.2%Under+18335.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+67013.0%Under-116092.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28725.8%Under-42380.9%
3Jake BauersRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Bauers+83010.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43518.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+79011.2%Under-144093.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
4William ContrerasC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWilliam Contreras+11607.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32223.7%Under-48382.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-24871.3%Under+18335.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23670.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
5Christian YelichDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Yelich+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
6Joey Ortiz3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJoey Ortiz+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37578.9%
7Luis LaraCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Lara+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45618.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
8Andrew Vaughn1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAndrew Vaughn+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49316.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29125.6%Under-43181.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-15060.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26627.3%Under-38979.6%
9Cooper PrattSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCooper Pratt+26003.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48017.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29025.6%Under-43081.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Konnor GriffinSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKonnor Griffin+16005.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44018.5%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45181.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+36321.6%Under-55384.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32623.5%Under-48983.0%
2Brandon Lowe2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Lowe+70012.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47617.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18164.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34577.5%
3Bryan ReynoldsDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan Reynolds+11008.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39720.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
4Oneil CruzCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOneil Cruz+68012.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52116.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24871.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+45418.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22168.8%
5Rafael Flores Jr.C
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRafael Flores Jr.+13207.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32923.3%Under-49483.2%
6Ryan O'Hearn1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan O'Hearn+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47917.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13442.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29725.2%Under-44081.5%
7Ronny SimonRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRonny Simon+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59114.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35422.0%Under-53784.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+74011.9%Under-130092.9%
8Jacob Gonzalez3B
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterJacob Gonzalez+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35522.0%Under-54084.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37278.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
9Jake MangumLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Mangum+33002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55015.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13243.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53084.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33076.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49816.7%Under-80088.9%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial