MLB matchup

09/16/20266:45 PMNationals ParkWashington, DC83°F · Mostly sunny

Phillies85 – 70vsNationals73 – 82

Sharp side

✈️ Phillies -199

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 9

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Philadelphia Phillies	5.9	74.8%
Washington Nationals	3.3	25.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	A	A
Washington Nationals	C	D-	D+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-199-1.5 (-119)

WSH+163+1.5 (-101)

Total 9.0Over -103Under -117

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-190-1.5 (-118)

WSH+155+1.5 (-102)

Total 9.0Over -102Under -118

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-190-1.5 (-115)

WSH+160+1.5 (-106)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +102

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-195-1.5 (-125)

WSH+162+1.5 (+105)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -115

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-178-1.5 (-110)

WSH+165+1.5 (-110)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-195-1.5 (-120)

WSH+160+1.5 (+100)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-196-1.5 (-120)

WSH+164+1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -138Under +114

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-195-1.5 (-120)

WSH+165+1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -130Under +110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-195-1.5 (-120)

WSH+165+1.5 (+100)

Total 8.5Over -130Under +110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	@ WSH	L 3–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/13/26	@ ATL	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 9.5
9/12/26	@ ATL	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/11/26	@ ATL	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 7
9/10/26	vs HOU	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs HOU	W 11–7	W -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs HOU	L 5–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/7/26	vs ATL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	vs ATL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs ATL	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Washington Nationals

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U7–2–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	vs PHI	W 6–3	W +1.5	O 8
9/13/26	vs LAA	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 9.5
9/12/26	vs LAA	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/11/26	vs LAA	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/9/26	@ SD	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	@ SD	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8
9/7/26	@ SD	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ LAD	L 5–7	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/5/26	@ LAD	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 7
9/4/26	@ LAD	L 3–5	L +1.5	P 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Phillies and Nationals
	Statistic
9.3 (8.1)	Hits	7.1 (8.4)
1.7 (1.5)	Doubles	1.4 (1.7)
1.5 (1.2)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.3)
16.0 (13.4)	Total Bases	11.8 (14.5)
3.4 (3.1)	Walks	2.9 (3.3)
8.1 (8.4)	Strikeouts	8.6 (8.6)
0.7 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	0.9 (1.1)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PhilliesZack WheelerConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%

Total Strikeouts6.5Over-11653.7%Under-11052.4%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%

NationalsJared SimpsonConfirmed

Starting lineups

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Schwarber+62013.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20567.2%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11147.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17563.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10551.2%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+12207.6%
Total Bases1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47382.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+15639.1%Under-21067.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11546.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43518.7%Under-68087.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33223.1%Under-49983.3%
Total Hits1.5Over+19533.9%Under-26672.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19966.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10608.6%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+26003.7%
Total Bases1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31424.2%Under-47082.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+11945.7%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-23670.2%Under+16837.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38079.2%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Bohm+16205.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32423.6%Under-48783.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+18435.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16362.0%Under+11845.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
6Bryson Stott3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBryson Stott+18005.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-24370.8%Under+17935.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+36421.6%Under-55584.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
7J.T. RealmutoC
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJ.T. Realmuto+15206.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20967.6%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23670.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12555.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+82010.9%Under-150093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
8Brandon MarshLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Marsh+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50016.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+75011.8%Under-134093.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
9Justin CrawfordCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJustin Crawford+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45817.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23829.6%Under-34577.5%

Washington NationalsConfirmed

1James WoodRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJames Wood+59714.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44618.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49316.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
2Daylen LileLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterDaylen Lile+9609.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+12843.9%Under-17163.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34922.3%Under-53084.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29474.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38479.3%
3Abimelec Ortiz1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAbimelec Ortiz+9409.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50116.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33176.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31776.0%
4CJ Abrams2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCJ Abrams+89010.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47017.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19633.8%Under-28073.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20367.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+46417.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
5Jose TenaDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Tena+17805.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55615.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30824.5%Under-45982.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
6Jorbit Vivas3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJorbit Vivas+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55015.4%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35422.0%Under-53884.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
7Dylan CrewsCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDylan Crews+15406.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57014.9%Under-95090.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+66013.2%Under-116092.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43981.4%
8Keibert RuizC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKeibert Ruiz+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53215.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27226.9%Under-39980.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17363.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+37521.1%Under-57585.2%
9Nasim NunezSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNasim Nunez+32003.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+39320.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32876.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29725.2%Under-44081.5%

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