MLB matchup

09/16/20268:10 PMDaikin ParkHouston, TX

Royals67 – 88vsAstros77 – 78

Sharp side

✈️ Royals +141

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 9

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Kansas City Royals	4.0	42.7%
Houston Astros	4.7	57.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Kansas City Royals	C	C	C
Houston Astros	B	C+	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+141+1.5 (-155)

HOU-170-1.5 (+128)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -115

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+140+1.5 (-150)

HOU-170-1.5 (+125)

Total 9.0Over +105Under -125

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+140+1.5 (-150)

HOU-175-1.5 (+123)

Total 9.0Over -118Under -122

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+140+1.5 (-152)

HOU-164-1.5 (+129)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +103

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+148+1.5 (-143)

HOU-160-1.5 (+123)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+140+1.5 (-160)

HOU-170-1.5 (+130)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+136+1.5 (-152)

HOU-162-1.5 (+126)

Total 8.5Over -124Under +102

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+140+1.5 (-155)

HOU-165-1.5 (+130)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+140+1.5 (-160)

HOU-165-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -130Under +110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Kansas City Royals

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U1–9–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	@ HOU	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/13/26	@ BOS	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/12/26	@ BOS	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	@ BOS	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs ARI	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	vs ARI	L 3–5	L +1.5	U 9
9/7/26	vs ARI	L 4–5	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/5/26	vs TOR	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/4/26	vs TOR	L 2–9	L +1.5	O 10

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Houston Astros

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	vs KC	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/13/26	@ TB	L 4–14	L +1.5	O 8
9/12/26	@ TB	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/11/26	@ TB	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/10/26	@ PHI	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	@ PHI	L 7–11	L +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ PHI	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs ARI	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs ARI	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9
9/4/26	vs ARI	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Royals and Astros
	Statistic
8.0 (8.4)	Hits	8.2 (8.0)
1.7 (1.8)	Doubles	1.5 (1.5)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.4 (1.3)
13.0 (13.6)	Total Bases	14.1 (13.7)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	3.3 (3.2)
7.8 (7.8)	Strikeouts	8.2 (8.2)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.3 (0.3)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RoyalsDaniel Lynch IVConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%

Total Strikeouts2.5Over-16362.0%Under+12843.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%

AstrosCristian JavierConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%

Total Hits Allowed3.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-15560.8%Under+11646.3%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-12355.2%Under-10350.7%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%

Starting lineups

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Carter JensenC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCarter Jensen+67013.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41819.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23970.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBobby Witt Jr.+67013.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36621.5%Under-55884.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-21067.7%Under+15639.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38579.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
3Vinnie Pasquantino1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVinnie Pasquantino+9109.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37521.1%Under-57585.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19065.5%Under+14241.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
4Salvador PerezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSalvador Perez+9109.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33622.9%Under-50783.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26027.8%Under-37979.1%
5Michael Massey2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Massey+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47117.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12744.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33276.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23069.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32023.8%Under-48082.8%
6Nick LoftinRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Loftin+18405.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49316.9%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27726.5%Under-40880.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
7John RaveCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJohn Rave+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52516.0%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38879.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47717.3%Under-76088.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
8Josh Rojas3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJosh Rojas+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58814.5%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42781.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+80011.1%Under-144093.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25628.1%Under-37378.9%
9Isaac CollinsLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Collins+27003.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41819.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17864.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40480.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51916.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+12407.5%
Total Bases1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30524.7%Under-45582.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+16737.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10952.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16362.0%Under+11746.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+73012.0%Under-128092.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYordan Alvarez+9209.8%
Total Bases1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51883.8%
Total Hits1.5Over+18435.2%Under-25071.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13757.8%Under-10150.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16562.3%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+12807.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47282.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-24370.8%Under+18035.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+15006.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33323.1%Under-50283.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-26972.9%Under+19833.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10449.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9709.3%Under-188094.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
5Yainer DiazC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+15806.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39320.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+19034.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11346.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27226.9%Under-39980.0%
6Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43718.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
7Cam SmithRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCam Smith+13806.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34022.7%Under-51483.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18865.3%Under+14141.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17363.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+83010.8%Under-152093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24370.8%
8Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44018.5%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30575.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+80011.1%Under-146093.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34677.6%
9Jorge BarrosaLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Barrosa+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51616.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12444.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38379.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23069.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10009.1%Under-198095.2%

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