MLB matchup

09/16/20268:40 PMCoors FieldDenver, CO76°F · Thunderstorms

Padres86 – 69vsRockies57 – 98

Sharp side

🏠 Rockies +144

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 11

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
San Diego Padres	6.5	65.5%
Colorado Rockies	5.0	34.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
San Diego Padres	B	B	B
Colorado Rockies	F	D-	D-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-175-1.5 (-114)

COL+144+1.5 (-105)

Total 11.0Over -106Under -114

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-170-1.5 (-115)

COL+140+1.5 (-105)

Total 11.0Over +100Under -120

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-182-1.5 (-120)

COL+150+1.5 (-103)

Total 10.5Over -127Under +105

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-170-1.5 (-115)

COL+143+1.5 (-105)

Total 11.0Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-162-1.5 (-113)

COL+150+1.5 (-107)

Total 11.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-175-1.5 (-115)

COL+145+1.5 (-105)

Total 11.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-166-1.5 (-113)

COL+140+1.5 (-106)

Total 10.5Over -134Under +110

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-175-1.5 (-115)

COL+145+1.5 (-105)

Total 10.5Over -130Under +110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-170-1.5 (-110)

COL+145+1.5 (-110)

Total 10.5Over -130Under +110

Recent form

Last 10 games

San Diego Padres

Overall8–2–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U7–2–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	@ COL	L 3–9	L -1.5	O 11
9/14/26	@ COL	W 8–7	L -1.5	O 11
9/13/26	@ SF	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/12/26	@ SF	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/11/26	@ SF	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/9/26	vs WSH	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	vs WSH	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/7/26	vs WSH	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	vs NYY	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
9/5/26	vs NYY	L 1–5	L -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Colorado Rockies

Overall2–8–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U7–1–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	vs SD	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 11
9/14/26	vs SD	L 7–8	W +1.5	O 11
9/13/26	@ DET	L 1–8	L +1.5	P 9
9/12/26	@ DET	L 7–11	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/11/26	@ DET	L 2–6	L +1.5	P 8
9/10/26	@ NYY	L 3–10	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/9/26	@ NYY	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 9.5
9/8/26	@ NYY	L 3–5	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/6/26	vs STL	L 8–10	L +1.5	O 11
9/5/26	vs STL	W 10–7	W +1.5	O 11

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Padres and Rockies
	Statistic
9.9 (8.0)	Hits	8.9 (8.5)
1.8 (1.4)	Doubles	1.8 (1.7)
1.6 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.1)
16.8 (13.0)	Total Bases	14.7 (14.1)
3.8 (3.4)	Walks	3.2 (3.1)
7.3 (8.0)	Strikeouts	8.7 (8.8)
1.2 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PadresRobbie RayConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+10748.3%Under-13657.6%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-19265.8%Under+14341.2%

RockiesMason AdamsConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%

Total Outs Recorded13.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-11152.6%Under-11553.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%

Starting lineups

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.DH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+63013.7%
Total Bases1.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34477.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12455.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14341.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-19065.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+36121.7%Under-55184.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
2Dustin HarrisRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterDustin Harris+12807.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51683.8%
Total Hits1.5Over+19434.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11453.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10349.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+25927.9%Under-37879.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19766.3%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+73012.0%
Total Bases1.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35878.2%
Total Hits1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over-11453.3%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14759.5%Under+10748.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
4Ty France1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTy France+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+26627.3%Under-38979.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+14341.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16362.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10551.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12145.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+82010.9%
Total Bases1.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
Total Hits1.5Over+14241.3%Under-19065.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10249.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+56115.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
6Xander BogaertsSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterXander Bogaerts+15206.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44981.8%
Total Hits1.5Over+16637.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20066.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12045.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41019.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
7Jake Cronenworth2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Cronenworth+18805.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15961.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32023.8%Under-47982.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-26272.4%Under+19334.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10249.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
8Samad TaylorLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSamad Taylor+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43118.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10952.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41319.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
9Ethan SalasC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEthan Salas+13207.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40219.9%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%

Colorado RockiesConfirmed

1Jake McCarthyLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJake McCarthy+18605.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33922.8%Under-51183.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+18435.2%Under-25071.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30375.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16362.0%Under+11845.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42581.0%
2Connor Norby2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterConnor Norby+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34022.7%Under-51483.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20567.2%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13256.9%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10651.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-162094.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
3Cole CarriggCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCole Carrigg+12607.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33123.2%Under-49883.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22469.1%Under+16637.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12755.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51716.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23670.2%
4Kyle Karros3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Karros+14406.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18364.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37221.2%Under-56985.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20967.6%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15660.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
5Adael AmadorDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterAdael Amador+16005.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37621.0%Under-57685.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20567.2%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16762.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+80011.1%Under-146093.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
6Troy Johnston1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTroy Johnston+19205.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46017.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23829.6%Under-34477.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37278.8%
7Jordan BeckRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJordan Beck+13806.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48117.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+70012.5%Under-124092.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25028.6%Under-36478.4%
8Braxton FulfordC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBraxton Fulford+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55115.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31175.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34777.6%
9Ezequiel TovarSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEzequiel Tovar+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43918.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16261.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32376.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24429.1%Under-35478.0%

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