MLB matchup

09/16/20269:40 PMChase FieldPhoenix, AZ

Marlins76 – 79vsDiamondbacks81 – 74

Sharp side

✈️ Marlins +119

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 9

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Miami Marlins	4.3	46.4%
Arizona Diamondbacks	4.6	53.6%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Miami Marlins	C	C+	C
Arizona Diamondbacks	B-	C+	C+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+119+1.5 (-175)

ARI-144-1.5 (+144)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -121

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+115+1.5 (-185)

ARI-140-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+114+1.5 (-177)

ARI-136-1.5 (+143)

Total 9.0Over -120Under -120

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+122+1.5 (-178)

ARI-145-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+121+1.5 (-180)

ARI-131-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+115+1.5 (-190)

ARI-140-1.5 (+155)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+116+1.5 (-182)

ARI-136-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -132Under +108

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+115+1.5 (-180)

ARI-140-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+120+1.5 (-180)

ARI-140-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Miami Marlins

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U8–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	@ ARI	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/14/26	@ ARI	L 7–8	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/13/26	vs LAD	W 6–4	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/12/26	vs LAD	W 4–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/11/26	vs LAD	L 2–6	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/9/26	vs NYM	L 14–15	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	vs NYM	L 5–7	L +1.5	O 8
9/7/26	vs NYM	L 4–9	L -1.5	O 8
9/6/26	vs CHC	W 10–3	W +1.5	O 8
9/5/26	vs CHC	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line2–8–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/15/26	vs MIA	L 2–4	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/14/26	vs MIA	W 8–7	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/13/26	vs TEX	L 6–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/12/26	vs TEX	L 2–6	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	vs TEX	W 9–1	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/9/26	@ KC	L 2–5	L -1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ KC	W 5–3	W -1.5	U 9
9/7/26	@ KC	W 5–4	L -1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	@ HOU	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8
9/5/26	@ HOU	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Marlins and Diamondbacks
	Statistic
8.2 (8.4)	Hits	8.4 (8.2)
1.5 (1.6)	Doubles	1.7 (1.7)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.0)
13.1 (13.4)	Total Bases	13.7 (13.3)
3.3 (3.4)	Walks	3.4 (3.4)
8.2 (8.2)	Strikeouts	7.4 (7.4)
1.0 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

MarlinsRyan GustoConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-12054.5%Under-10651.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%

DiamondbacksMerrill KellyConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+12344.8%Under-15861.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%

Starting lineups

Miami MarlinsConfirmed

1Kyle Stowers1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Stowers+64013.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52784.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-22369.0%Under+16637.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10350.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
2Heriberto HernandezLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterHeriberto Hernandez+78011.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16662.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38320.7%Under-58885.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-21868.6%Under+16238.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10608.6%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
3Otto LopezSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOtto Lopez+16405.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36821.4%Under-56284.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+19833.6%Under-27073.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30575.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-18064.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11147.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+45118.1%Under-71087.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38579.4%
4Griffin ConineDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGriffin Conine+77011.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18665.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44718.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
5Javier Sanoja3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJavier Sanoja+21004.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39120.4%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-25471.8%Under+18734.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18765.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+70012.5%Under-122092.4%
6Jakob MarseeCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJakob Marsee+17405.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+14640.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36021.7%Under-54884.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
7Xavier Edwards2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterXavier Edwards+31003.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+15639.1%Under-20967.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42818.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-21368.1%Under+15838.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10551.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+67013.0%Under-116092.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
8Joe MackC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJoe Mack+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49016.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16762.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21631.6%Under-30975.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
9Esteury RuizRF
Player props1 market
First Home Run HitterEsteury Ruiz+22004.3%

Arizona DiamondbacksConfirmed

1Lars NootbaarLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLars Nootbaar+9709.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52884.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-23069.7%Under+17136.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13256.9%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
2Ketel Marte2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKetel Marte+87010.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31923.9%Under-47782.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+20133.2%Under-27573.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15260.3%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24170.7%
3Gabriel MorenoC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterGabriel Moreno+20004.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30324.8%Under-45181.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+16637.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-18064.3%Under+13043.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
4Geraldo PerdomoSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterGeraldo Perdomo+19005.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35322.1%Under-53684.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22569.2%Under+16737.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+79011.2%Under-144093.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18965.4%
5Corbin CarrollRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCorbin Carroll+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14759.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49383.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-22669.3%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43318.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
6Nolan Arenado3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNolan Arenado+14206.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41319.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30375.2%
7Jesus SanchezDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJesus Sanchez+14606.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39720.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33376.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24370.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46882.4%
8Pavin Smith1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterPavin Smith+19205.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44018.5%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10748.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17363.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39879.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
9Tim TawaCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTim Tawa+19005.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46217.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43981.4%

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