MLB matchup

09/17/202612:35 PMPNC ParkPittsburgh, PA79°F · Intermittent clouds

Brewers97 – 58vsPirates78 – 77

Sharp side

✈️ Brewers -143

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	61.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates	3.6	38.9%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Milwaukee Brewers	A-	A-	A-
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	C	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-143-1.5 (+114)

PIT+118+1.5 (-137)

Total 8.5Over -122Under +101

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-140-1.5 (+118)

PIT+118+1.5 (-140)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-136-1.5 (+123)

PIT+112+1.5 (-150)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -106

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-137-1.5 (+119)

PIT+117+1.5 (-139)

Total 8.5Over -119Under +101

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-130-1.5 (+122)

PIT+120+1.5 (-142)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-140-1.5 (+120)

PIT+115+1.5 (-145)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-136-1.5 (+118)

PIT+116+1.5 (-142)

Total 8.5Over -120Under -102

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-140-1.5 (+115)

PIT+120+1.5 (-145)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIL-135-1.5 (+125)

PIT+115+1.5 (-150)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

Milwaukee Brewers

Overall7–3–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U5–4–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	@ PIT	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/15/26	@ PIT	W 5–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	vs CIN	L 3–4	L -1.5	U 8
9/12/26	vs CIN	W 13–9	W -1.5	O 9
9/11/26	vs CIN	W 20–0	W -1.5	O 8
9/9/26	vs CHC	W 8–6	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/8/26	vs CHC	W 4–3	L -1.5	P 7
9/7/26	vs CHC	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/6/26	@ CIN	L 8–12	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/5/26	@ CIN	L 3–5	L -1.5	U 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	vs MIL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 7.5
9/15/26	vs MIL	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	@ CHC	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
9/12/26	@ CHC	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/11/26	@ CHC	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/10/26	@ CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/9/26	@ CHW	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ CHW	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Brewers and Pirates
	Statistic
8.4 (8.6)	Hits	7.8 (8.7)
1.7 (1.7)	Doubles	1.3 (1.5)
0.9 (0.9)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.1)
13.1 (13.4)	Total Bases	12.1 (13.8)
4.0 (4.1)	Walks	3.2 (3.5)
8.4 (8.4)	Strikeouts	9.4 (9.3)
0.9 (0.9)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.8)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

BrewersKyle HarrisonConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+11646.3%Under-14859.7%

PiratesWilber DotelConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded5.5Over-20467.1%Under+15139.8%

Total Strikeouts1.5Over-13156.7%Under+10349.3%

Starting lineups

Milwaukee BrewersConfirmed

1Brice Turang2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBrice Turang+11408.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16362.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34422.5%Under-52083.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-25671.9%Under+18834.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13557.4%Under-10350.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+38620.6%Under-59585.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
2Luis LaraCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Lara+12407.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40919.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+19134.4%Under-26072.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14559.2%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16161.7%Under+11646.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15961.4%
3Jackson ChourioLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Chourio+81011.0%
Total Bases1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44381.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+16238.2%Under-21868.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11247.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+59114.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
4Andrew Vaughn1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAndrew Vaughn+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16437.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
5Gary SanchezDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGary Sanchez+9609.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26672.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
6Joey OrtizSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJoey Ortiz+19205.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+14740.5%Under-19666.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37321.1%Under-57085.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29474.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12555.6%Under-11052.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51516.3%Under-84089.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
7Sal FrelickRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterSal Frelick+22004.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+15040.0%Under-20066.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58285.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-21468.2%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
8Bo NaylorC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBo Naylor+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34922.3%Under-52984.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28574.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
9David Hamilton3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDavid Hamilton+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42419.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33877.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+30824.5%Under-45982.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28373.9%

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Konnor GriffinSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterKonnor Griffin+12007.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33023.3%Under-49783.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-23970.5%Under+17736.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+37221.2%Under-57085.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
2Oneil CruzCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOneil Cruz+89010.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46517.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27873.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+46217.8%Under-74088.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
3Bryan ReynoldsLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan Reynolds+10208.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+14141.5%Under-18865.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59185.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
4Rafael Flores Jr.1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRafael Flores Jr.+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46517.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
5Brandon Lowe2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Lowe+11008.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32876.6%
6Nick GonzalesDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Gonzales+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43918.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19666.2%Under+14640.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27226.9%Under-40080.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23670.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12054.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34677.6%
7Ronny SimonRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRonny Simon+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45917.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17363.4%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39879.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24871.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+81011.0%Under-148093.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39879.9%
8Jared Triolo3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Triolo+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56415.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30524.7%Under-45381.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36678.5%
9Henry DavisC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHenry Davis+12807.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+71012.3%Under-126092.6%
Total Hits0.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11252.8%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28474.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25827.9%Under-37779.0%

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