MLB matchup

09/17/20263:10 PMCoors FieldDenver, CO79°F · Cloudy

Padres86 – 69vsRockies57 – 98

Sharp side

✈️ Padres -203

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 10.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
San Diego Padres	7.0	70.8%
Colorado Rockies	4.9	29.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
San Diego Padres	B	B	B
Colorado Rockies	F	F	F

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-203-1.5 (-130)

COL+166+1.5 (+108)

Total 10.5Over -115Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-200-1.5 (-135)

COL+165+1.5 (+115)

Total 10.5Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-186-1.5 (-124)

COL+155+1.5 (+102)

Total 11.5Over +106Under -129

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-205-1.5 (-128)

COL+170+1.5 (+110)

Total 10.5Over -120Under +102

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-195-2.5 (+105)

COL+180+2.5 (-125)

Total 11.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-200-1.5 (-125)

COL+165+1.5 (+105)

Total 11.0Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-200-1.5 (-134)

COL+168+1.5 (+112)

Total 10.5Over -120Under -102

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-200-1.5 (-130)

COL+165+1.5 (+105)

Total 10.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

SD-195-1.5 (-130)

COL+165+1.5 (+110)

Total 10.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

San Diego Padres

Overall9–1–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U8–1–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	@ COL	W 9–3	W -1.5	O 11
9/15/26	@ COL	L 3–9	L -1.5	O 11
9/14/26	@ COL	W 8–7	L -1.5	O 11
9/13/26	@ SF	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/12/26	@ SF	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/11/26	@ SF	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/9/26	vs WSH	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	vs WSH	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8
9/7/26	vs WSH	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	vs NYY	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Colorado Rockies

Overall1–9–0W–L–TRun line2–8–0W–L–PO/U7–1–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	vs SD	L 3–9	L +1.5	O 11
9/15/26	vs SD	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 11
9/14/26	vs SD	L 7–8	W +1.5	O 11
9/13/26	@ DET	L 1–8	L +1.5	P 9
9/12/26	@ DET	L 7–11	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/11/26	@ DET	L 2–6	L +1.5	P 8
9/10/26	@ NYY	L 3–10	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/9/26	@ NYY	L 1–6	L +1.5	U 9.5
9/8/26	@ NYY	L 3–5	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/6/26	vs STL	L 8–10	L +1.5	O 11

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Padres and Rockies
	Statistic
10.3 (8.0)	Hits	8.8 (8.5)
1.9 (1.4)	Doubles	1.8 (1.8)
1.7 (1.1)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.1)
17.6 (13.0)	Total Bases	14.6 (14.0)
3.9 (3.4)	Walks	3.2 (3.1)
7.2 (8.0)	Strikeouts	8.7 (8.8)
1.2 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PadresMichael KingConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+11047.6%Under-14158.5%

RockiesTanner GordonConfirmed

Player props2 markets

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-11653.7%Under-11052.4%

Starting lineups

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+54515.5%
Total Bases2.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30375.2%
Total Hits1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-19165.6%Under+13742.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-19466.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+31923.9%Under-47782.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
2Dustin HarrisCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterDustin Harris+12207.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49283.1%
Total Hits1.5Over+16637.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23470.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16562.3%Under+11945.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+36821.4%Under-56284.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25927.9%Under-37879.1%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+64013.5%
Total Bases1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39679.8%
Total Hits1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18665.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14459.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14759.5%Under+10748.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15060.0%Under+10947.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23269.9%
4Ty France1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTy France+85010.5%
Total Bases1.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34677.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18164.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10250.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11346.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35578.0%
5Jackson MerrillDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+79011.2%
Total Bases1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+27127.0%Under-39779.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18665.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10149.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11047.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30224.9%Under-45081.8%
6Xander BogaertsSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterXander Bogaerts+12207.6%
Total Bases1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42781.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+14540.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12154.8%Under-11453.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17763.9%Under+12744.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
7Luis CampusanoC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Campusano+12207.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31324.2%Under-46782.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-24971.3%Under+18435.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33376.9%
8Jake Cronenworth2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Cronenworth+19404.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35522.0%Under-53984.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-23470.1%Under+17336.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
9Samad TaylorLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterSamad Taylor+24004.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51983.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-22769.4%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15360.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47282.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37278.8%

Colorado RockiesConfirmed

1Jake McCarthyCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJake McCarthy+17005.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32523.5%Under-48883.0%
Total Hits1.5Over+18235.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25571.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11446.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43618.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31224.3%Under-46582.3%
2Connor Norby2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterConnor Norby+12407.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33123.2%Under-49883.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-20767.4%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
3Cole CarriggSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterCole Carrigg+13806.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44881.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-24871.3%Under+18335.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10848.1%Under-15060.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9609.4%Under-184094.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
4TJ Rumfield1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTJ Rumfield+23004.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37521.1%Under-57485.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-22669.3%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
5Kyle Karros3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Karros+24004.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51883.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17536.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12355.2%Under-11252.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
6Mickey MoniakLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMickey Moniak+11408.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38720.5%Under-59685.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16338.0%Under-23069.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
7Troy JohnstonDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTroy Johnston+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40120.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-21167.8%Under+15738.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12255.0%Under-11353.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38379.3%
8Brett SullivanC
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterBrett Sullivan+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25772.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
9Zac VeenRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterZac Veen+17405.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52016.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36378.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59085.5%

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