MLB matchup

09/17/20267:15 PMDaikin ParkHouston, TX

Royals67 – 88vsAstros77 – 78

Sharp side

✈️ Royals +129

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 9

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Kansas City Royals	4.1	46.5%
Houston Astros	4.5	53.5%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Kansas City Royals	C	C+	C
Houston Astros	B	C	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+129+1.5 (-163)

HOU-156-1.5 (+135)

Total 9.0Over -102Under -118

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+125+1.5 (-165)

HOU-155-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+120+1.5 (-148)

HOU-143-1.5 (+118)

Total 8.5Over -121Under -103

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+129+1.5 (-164)

HOU-152-1.5 (+139)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -120

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+132+1.5 (-161)

HOU-142-1.5 (+141)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+125+1.5 (-165)

HOU-150-1.5 (+135)

Total 9.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+124+1.5 (-170)

HOU-146-1.5 (+140)

Total 8.5Over -128Under +104

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+130+1.5 (-165)

HOU-150-1.5 (+135)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+128+1.5 (-165)

HOU-145-1.5 (+140)

Total 8.5Over -130Under +110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Kansas City Royals

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U0–10–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	@ HOU	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/15/26	@ HOU	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/13/26	@ BOS	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/12/26	@ BOS	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	@ BOS	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs ARI	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	vs ARI	L 3–5	L +1.5	U 9
9/7/26	vs ARI	L 4–5	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/5/26	vs TOR	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Houston Astros

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	vs KC	L 2–5	L -1.5	U 9
9/15/26	vs KC	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/13/26	@ TB	L 4–14	L +1.5	O 8
9/12/26	@ TB	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/11/26	@ TB	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/10/26	@ PHI	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	@ PHI	L 7–11	L +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ PHI	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs ARI	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/5/26	vs ARI	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Royals and Astros
	Statistic
8.1 (8.3)	Hits	8.0 (8.0)
1.8 (1.8)	Doubles	1.5 (1.5)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.3)
13.1 (13.6)	Total Bases	13.7 (13.7)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
7.8 (7.8)	Strikeouts	8.2 (8.2)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.3 (0.3)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RoyalsSeth LugoConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-16862.7%Under+13143.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%

AstrosMiguel UllolaConfirmed

Starting lineups

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Carter JensenC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCarter Jensen+62013.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44318.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBobby Witt Jr.+63013.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-22168.8%Under+16437.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34522.5%Under-52283.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
3Jac CaglianoneDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJac Caglianone+73012.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39020.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-21267.9%Under+15838.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23470.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
4Maikel Garcia3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMaikel Garcia+17005.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+15139.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53015.9%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16437.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12555.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
5Michael Massey2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Massey+12607.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+14141.5%Under-18965.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39720.1%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19265.8%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19966.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31724.0%Under-47382.5%
6Salvador Perez1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSalvador Perez+11607.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45817.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13842.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41880.7%
7John RaveRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJohn Rave+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47817.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37178.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
8Kyle IsbelCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Isbel+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54315.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28725.8%Under-42380.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10009.1%Under-198095.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38779.5%
9Isaac CollinsLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Collins+28003.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50216.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17363.4%Under+13043.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41780.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22369.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+12407.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53584.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-27373.2%Under+20033.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14759.5%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13557.4%Under-10250.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+86010.4%Under-160094.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35878.2%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYordan Alvarez+69012.7%
Total Bases1.5Over-11152.6%Under-12054.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49183.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-26472.5%Under+19434.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11346.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+12807.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14640.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46517.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20467.1%Under+15239.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25471.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+17205.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43518.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-23970.5%Under+17736.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16338.0%Under-23069.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10551.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
5Yainer DiazC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+16605.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17263.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44618.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-24871.3%Under+18335.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10150.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
6Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41819.3%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20333.0%Under-28974.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9909.2%Under-194095.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27873.5%
7Taylor TrammellLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Trammell+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42818.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
8Cam SmithRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCam Smith+16605.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47617.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30075.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10408.8%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
9LaMonte Wade Jr.1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLaMonte Wade Jr.+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57814.7%Under-96090.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-11353.1%Under-11854.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28725.8%Under-42480.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24270.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%

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