MLB matchup

09/17/20267:15 PMCiti FieldQueens, NY77°F · Showers

Phillies85 – 70vsMets71 – 84

Sharp side

✈️ Phillies +109

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Philadelphia Phillies	3.7	49.3%
New York Mets	3.8	50.7%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	B+	A-
New York Mets	B	B+	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+109+1.5 (-187)

NYM-132-1.5 (+154)

Total 8.0Over -119Under -101

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+110+1.5 (-190)

NYM-135-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.0Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+106+1.5 (-190)

NYM-125-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over -103Under -120

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+112+1.5 (-182)

NYM-132-1.5 (+153)

Total 8.5Over +106Under -125

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+114+1.5 (-185)

NYM-124-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+110+1.5 (-185)

NYM-130-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+110+1.5 (-192)

NYM-130-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over -102Under -120

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+110+1.5 (-190)

NYM-130-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+110+1.5 (-190)

NYM-130-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	@ WSH	W 3–0	W -1.5	U 9
9/15/26	@ WSH	L 3–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/13/26	@ ATL	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 9.5
9/12/26	@ ATL	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/11/26	@ ATL	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 7
9/10/26	vs HOU	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs HOU	W 11–7	W -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs HOU	L 5–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/7/26	vs ATL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/6/26	vs ATL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

New York Mets

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	vs BAL	L 1–7	L +1.5	U 9
9/15/26	vs BAL	L 5–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/14/26	vs BAL	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/13/26	@ NYY	L 0–2	L +1.5	U 8
9/12/26	@ NYY	W 12–2	W +1.5	O 8
9/11/26	@ NYY	L 4–6	L +1.5	O 8
9/9/26	@ MIA	W 15–14	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	@ MIA	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 8
9/7/26	@ MIA	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/6/26	vs SF	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Phillies and Mets
	Statistic
7.4 (8.0)	Hits	7.6 (8.0)
1.4 (1.5)	Doubles	1.2 (1.3)
1.0 (1.2)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.3)
12.1 (13.3)	Total Bases	12.5 (13.4)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	3.1 (3.2)
8.5 (8.4)	Strikeouts	8.5 (8.4)
0.6 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PhilliesAaron NolaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-11453.3%Under-11753.9%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-10250.5%Under-13156.7%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10449.0%Under-13256.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%

MetsNolan McLeanConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10947.8%Under-13958.2%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+15339.5%Under-20667.3%

Starting lineups

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48317.2%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22569.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12755.9%Under-10952.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+13606.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+14940.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47517.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-21668.4%Under+16138.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12555.6%Under-11052.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+9609.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+14640.7%Under-19566.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44318.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+25003.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17864.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39420.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-27373.2%Under+20133.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21868.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32223.7%Under-48382.8%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Bohm+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53515.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28974.3%
6Bryson Stott3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryson Stott+16005.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32276.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+81011.0%Under-148093.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
7Brandon MarshLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Marsh+17805.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47517.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34177.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24170.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
8Justin CrawfordCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJustin Crawford+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25827.9%Under-37679.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
9Garrett StubbsC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterGarrett Stubbs+28003.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56715.0%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32923.3%Under-49483.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41880.7%

New York MetsConfirmed

1Francisco LindorSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterFrancisco Lindor+74011.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39920.0%Under-62086.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11653.7%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26672.7%
2Juan SotoDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJuan Soto+59514.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35921.8%Under-54684.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-25471.8%Under+18734.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-128092.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
3Bo Bichette3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBo Bichette+14006.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36521.5%Under-55884.8%
Total Hits1.5Over+16537.7%Under-22369.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-18965.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29025.6%Under-43081.1%
4Carson BengeRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCarson Benge+15806.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37421.1%Under-57385.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+80011.1%Under-146093.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25772.0%
5Jared Young1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJared Young+12407.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44918.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21631.6%Under-31175.7%
6A.J. EwingCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterA.J. Ewing+19404.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38120.8%Under-58685.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33076.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43118.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
7Francisco AlvarezC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterFrancisco Alvarez+11008.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59814.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
8Brett Baty2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrett Baty+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54815.4%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12154.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39679.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25171.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
9Nick MorabitoLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Morabito+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56715.0%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10548.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28825.8%Under-42581.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24329.2%Under-35377.9%

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