MLB matchup

09/17/20268:05 PMGlobe Life FieldArlington, TX

Red Sox84 – 71vsRangers78 – 77

Sharp side

✈️ Red Sox -130

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Boston Red Sox	4.1	56.7%
Texas Rangers	3.4	43.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Boston Red Sox	B-	A-	B
Texas Rangers	C	C+	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-130-1.5 (+130)

TEX+108+1.5 (-157)

Total 8.0Over -103Under -117

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-130-1.5 (+135)

TEX+105+1.5 (-160)

Total 8.0Over +100Under -120

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-129-1.5 (+133)

TEX+108+1.5 (-162)

Total 8.5Over +106Under -129

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-125-1.5 (+132)

TEX+107+1.5 (-154)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +103

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-117-1.5 (+140)

TEX+107+1.5 (-160)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-125-1.5 (+125)

TEX+105+1.5 (-150)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-126-1.5 (+134)

TEX+108+1.5 (-162)

Total 7.5Over -118Under -104

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-125-1.5 (+135)

TEX+105+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS-120-1.5 (+135)

TEX+107+1.5 (-160)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

Boston Red Sox

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U2–8–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	@ TEX	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/15/26	@ TEX	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	vs KC	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/12/26	vs KC	W 5–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	vs KC	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs LAA	L 4–6	L -1.5	O 9
9/8/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/7/26	vs LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ BAL	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7
9/5/26	@ BAL	W 5–0	W -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Texas Rangers

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U6–3–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	vs BOS	W 7–3	W +1.5	O 8
9/15/26	vs BOS	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	@ ARI	W 7–6	W +1.5	O 8
9/12/26	@ ARI	W 6–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	@ ARI	L 1–9	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/10/26	@ SEA	L 3–4	L -1.5	P 7
9/9/26	@ SEA	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/8/26	@ SEA	W 10–5	W +1.5	O 7.5
9/6/26	vs TB	W 8–6	W +1.5	O 7.5
9/5/26	vs TB	L 3–6	L +1.5	O 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Red Sox and Rangers
	Statistic
8.1 (8.3)	Hits	7.3 (8.0)
1.7 (1.8)	Doubles	1.3 (1.4)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.0 (1.1)
13.0 (13.4)	Total Bases	11.8 (13.0)
3.2 (3.2)	Walks	3.0 (3.2)
8.3 (8.2)	Strikeouts	8.6 (8.6)
0.7 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.5 (0.5)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

Red SoxSonny GrayConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-10651.5%Under-12054.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%

RangersTyler AlexanderConfirmed

Starting lineups

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Roman AnthonyLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterRoman Anthony+10009.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44418.4%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-25071.4%Under+18435.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13256.9%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31475.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10249.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9809.3%Under-190095.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
2Jahmai JonesDH
Player props1 market
First Home Run HitterJahmai Jones+65013.3%
3Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterWilyer Abreu+9909.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51983.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-24170.7%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12154.8%Under-11052.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27873.5%
4Willson Contreras1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWillson Contreras+78011.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35222.1%Under-53584.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-21868.6%Under+16238.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
5Adley RutschmanC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAdley Rutschman+15606.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+14241.3%Under-19065.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38120.8%Under-58685.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18765.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
6Trevor StorySS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTrevor Story+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41619.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21167.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13657.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53515.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29925.1%Under-44481.6%
7Jarren DuranCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJarren Duran+15406.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21568.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13958.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+79011.2%Under-142093.4%
8Caleb Durbin3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCaleb Durbin+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45718.0%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17363.4%Under+13043.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53715.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42781.0%
9Nick Sogard2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Sogard+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44018.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-162094.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%

Texas RangersConfirmed

1Ezequiel Duran3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterEzequiel Duran+15006.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+15239.7%Under-20567.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44618.3%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16437.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10451.0%Under-12856.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27326.8%Under-40180.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18164.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12555.6%Under-11052.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51716.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30124.9%Under-44781.7%
2Corey SeagerSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCorey Seager+81011.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44118.5%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19265.8%Under+14341.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
3Josh JungDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJosh Jung+16005.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+15139.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43618.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22669.3%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10651.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41280.5%
4Brandon NimmoRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Nimmo+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42419.1%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13542.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+84010.6%Under-154093.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
5Wyatt LangfordLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWyatt Langford+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45618.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+46817.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
6Jake Burger1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Burger+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46417.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27273.1%
7Nicky Lopez2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNicky Lopez+35002.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+36521.5%Under-55784.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35177.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+40219.9%Under-63086.3%
8Danny JansenC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDanny Jansen+18805.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55715.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29025.6%Under-42881.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24728.8%Under-36078.3%
9Evan CarterCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterEvan Carter+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46982.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27573.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23370.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47217.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%

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