MLB matchup

09/18/20266:40 PMGreat American Ball ParkCincinnati, OH79°F · Cloudy

Cubs86 – 69vsReds72 – 83

Sharp side

🏠 Reds +124

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Chicago Cubs	4.5	55.1%
Cincinnati Reds	4.0	44.9%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Chicago Cubs	A-	B+	A-
Cincinnati Reds	C	B	C+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-149-1.5 (+112)

CIN+124+1.5 (-135)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-155-1.5 (+110)

CIN+125+1.5 (-135)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-148-1.5 (+115)

CIN+123+1.5 (-139)

Total 7.5Over -124Under +102

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-150-1.5 (+118)

CIN+127+1.5 (-137)

Total 8.5Over -112Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-143-1.5 (+115)

CIN+133+1.5 (-135)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-150-1.5 (+110)

CIN+125+1.5 (-135)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-146-1.5 (+106)

CIN+124+1.5 (-128)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-150-1.5 (+115)

CIN+125+1.5 (-140)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

CHC-145-1.5 (+120)

CIN+125+1.5 (-145)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Chicago Cubs

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–2–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/16/26	vs ATL	W 8–4	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/15/26	vs ATL	L 3–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/14/26	vs ATL	W 7–3	W -1.5	O 9.5
9/13/26	vs PIT	L 3–4	L -1.5	P 7
9/12/26	vs PIT	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 9.5
9/11/26	vs PIT	W 12–2	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/9/26	@ MIL	L 6–8	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/8/26	@ MIL	L 3–4	W +1.5	P 7
9/7/26	@ MIL	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 8
9/6/26	@ MIA	L 3–10	L -1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Cincinnati Reds

Overall2–8–0W–L–TRun line3–7–0W–L–PO/U4–4–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/17/26	vs LAD	L 2–8	L +1.5	P 10
9/16/26	vs LAD	W 6–2	W +1.5	P 8
9/15/26	vs LAD	L 0–4	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/14/26	vs LAD	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	@ MIL	W 4–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/12/26	@ MIL	L 9–13	L +1.5	O 9
9/11/26	@ MIL	L 0–20	L +1.5	O 8
9/9/26	@ LAD	L 1–14	L +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ LAD	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/7/26	@ LAD	L 3–6	L +1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Cubs and Reds
	Statistic
7.9 (8.5)	Hits	7.5 (7.6)
1.6 (1.7)	Doubles	1.3 (1.4)
1.2 (1.4)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.3)
13.4 (14.7)	Total Bases	12.8 (13.1)
3.9 (4.0)	Walks	3.4 (3.5)
8.5 (8.4)	Strikeouts	9.6 (9.6)
0.6 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.7 (0.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

CubsClay HolmesConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-11252.8%Under-11453.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-19966.6%Under+14840.3%

RedsChase BurnsConfirmed

Player props4 markets

Earned Runs Allowed0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%

Total Hits Allowed2.5Over+11147.4%Under-14859.7%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-12755.9%Under+10050.0%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+18435.2%Under-25071.4%

Starting lineups

Chicago CubsConfirmed

1Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterPete Crow-Armstrong+49916.7%
Total Bases1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32023.8%Under-47982.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+19234.2%Under-26072.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-13256.9%Under-10451.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
2Seiya SuzukiRF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterSeiya Suzuki+85010.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40319.9%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14740.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24270.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10208.9%Under-200095.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16462.1%
3Michael Busch1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Busch+9409.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47917.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15761.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
4Alex Bregman3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlex Bregman+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16762.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37820.9%Under-57985.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15360.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
5Ian HappLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIan Happ+89010.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49016.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9709.3%Under-188094.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13156.7%
6Nico Hoerner2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterNico Hoerner+28003.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+15139.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43718.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-22869.5%Under+16937.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23829.6%Under-34477.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14959.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+47217.5%Under-76088.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30524.7%Under-45481.9%
7Michael ConfortoDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Conforto+10009.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54415.5%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29474.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24671.1%
8Carson KellyC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCarson Kelly+16005.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52815.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31375.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11446.7%Under-15861.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26672.7%
9Dansby SwansonSS
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterDansby Swanson+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55115.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31475.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20266.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%

Cincinnati RedsConfirmed

1Carlos JorgeCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCarlos Jorge+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55315.3%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12444.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49283.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13156.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
2Elly De La CruzSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterElly De La Cruz+90010.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17163.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47117.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15761.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52884.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14759.5%
3Sal Stewart1B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterSal Stewart+12607.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50716.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28373.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+90010.0%Under-170094.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
4Tyler StephensonDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterTyler Stephenson+15806.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49016.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19334.1%Under-27473.3%
5JJ BledayLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJJ Bleday+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+60014.3%Under-102091.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21167.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
6Eugenio Suarez3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEugenio Suarez+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55915.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11147.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21631.6%Under-31075.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
7Hector RodriguezRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHector Rodriguez+19005.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52715.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24871.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44981.8%
8Jose TrevinoC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Trevino+34002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58514.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18665.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29225.5%Under-43281.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35322.1%Under-53684.3%
9Matt McLain2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt McLain+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58714.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30224.9%Under-44981.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27273.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29274.5%

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