MLB matchup

09/18/20266:40 PMPNC ParkPittsburgh, PA76°F · Partly sunny

Royals67 – 88vsPirates78 – 77

Sharp side

🏠 Pirates -193

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Kansas City Royals	3.2	32.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates	4.9	67.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Kansas City Royals	C	C-	C-
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	A-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+158+1.5 (-136)

PIT-193-1.5 (+113)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -114

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+155+1.5 (-135)

PIT-190-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+163+1.5 (-130)

PIT-200-1.5 (+107)

Total 8.5Over -104Under -118

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+158+1.5 (-137)

PIT-190-1.5 (+118)

Total 8.5Over -113Under -105

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+166+1.5 (-130)

PIT-180-1.5 (+110)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+155+1.5 (-140)

PIT-190-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+160+1.5 (-140)

PIT-190-1.5 (+116)

Total 8.5Over -104Under -118

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+155+1.5 (-135)

PIT-190-1.5 (+115)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+160+1.5 (-145)

PIT-190-1.5 (+120)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Kansas City Royals

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U0–10–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/17/26	@ HOU	L 2–6	L +1.5	U 9
9/16/26	@ HOU	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/15/26	@ HOU	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/13/26	@ BOS	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/12/26	@ BOS	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	@ BOS	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs ARI	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	vs ARI	L 3–5	L +1.5	U 9
9/7/26	vs ARI	L 4–5	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/6/26	vs TOR	W 6–1	W +1.5	U 9.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line7–3–0W–L–PO/U4–5–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/17/26	vs MIL	W 7–4	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/16/26	vs MIL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 7.5
9/15/26	vs MIL	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	@ CHC	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
9/12/26	@ CHC	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/11/26	@ CHC	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/10/26	@ CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/9/26	@ CHW	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ CHW	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/6/26	vs LAA	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Royals and Pirates
	Statistic
7.2 (8.3)	Hits	8.9 (8.7)
1.5 (1.8)	Doubles	1.6 (1.5)
0.8 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.1)
11.5 (13.5)	Total Bases	14.1 (13.8)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	3.5 (3.5)
8.0 (7.8)	Strikeouts	9.3 (9.3)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.8)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RoyalsRandy DobnakConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-10952.2%Under-11753.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%

PiratesPaul SkenesConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10947.8%Under-13958.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12655.8%

Starting lineups

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Carter JensenC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCarter Jensen+79011.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-14859.7%Under+11247.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33677.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBobby Witt Jr.+10009.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31024.4%Under-46282.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17236.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30575.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+35821.8%Under-54484.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31776.0%
3Vinnie Pasquantino1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterVinnie Pasquantino+88010.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15838.8%Under-22268.9%
4Maikel Garcia3B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterMaikel Garcia+19404.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+14940.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36421.6%Under-55684.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-21468.2%Under+15938.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33076.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+11408.1%Under-240096.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
5Michael Massey2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Massey+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41519.4%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30824.5%Under-45882.1%
6Salvador PerezDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSalvador Perez+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29025.6%Under-42981.1%
7John RaveLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJohn Rave+15806.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51816.2%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11152.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27726.5%Under-40780.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19633.8%Under-28073.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+72012.2%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31475.8%
8Nick LoftinRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Loftin+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36221.6%Under-55184.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12943.7%Under-17363.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39779.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33276.9%
9Kyle IsbelCF
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Isbel+24004.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48217.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17363.4%Under+13043.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42881.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Konnor GriffinSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterKonnor Griffin+17005.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+31224.3%Under-46582.3%
Total Hits1.5Over+19434.0%Under-26372.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20033.3%Under-28674.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-15660.9%Under+11346.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+35422.0%Under-53884.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28874.2%
2Brandon Lowe2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Lowe+77011.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36221.6%Under-55284.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-23970.5%Under+17736.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12856.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
3Bryan ReynoldsLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan Reynolds+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+27726.5%Under-40880.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-26372.5%Under+19434.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16637.6%Under-23370.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11653.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
4Oneil CruzCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOneil Cruz+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38120.8%Under-58585.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+14341.2%Under-19966.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+45718.0%Under-73088.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
5Nick Gonzales3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Gonzales+24004.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43981.4%
Total Hits1.5Over+18635.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14759.5%Under+11147.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16362.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16362.0%Under+11845.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22430.9%Under-32376.4%
6Ryan O'HearnDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan O'Hearn+15606.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33822.8%Under-50983.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-22669.3%Under+16837.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%
7Ronny SimonRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRonny Simon+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-20266.9%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10751.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10608.6%Under-220095.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
8Spencer Horwitz1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSpencer Horwitz+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59185.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
9Henry DavisC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterHenry Davis+14406.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55215.3%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13342.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22830.5%Under-32976.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%

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