MLB matchup

09/18/20267:10 PMCiti FieldQueens, NY79°F · Mostly sunny

Phillies85 – 70vsMets71 – 84

Sharp side

✈️ Phillies +108

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Philadelphia Phillies	4.3	50.6%
New York Mets	4.2	49.4%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	B-	B
New York Mets	B	B-	B-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+108+1.5 (-198)

NYM-131-1.5 (+162)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+105+1.5 (-200)

NYM-125-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI-105-1.5 (+160)

NYM-114+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.5Over -106Under -115

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+103+1.5 (-200)

NYM-120-1.5 (+169)

Total 8.5Over -110Under -108

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+111+1.5 (-190)

NYM-121-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+105+1.5 (-200)

NYM-125-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+106+1.5 (-200)

NYM-124-1.5 (+164)

Total 8.5Over -113Under -106

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+105+1.5 (-200)

NYM-125-1.5 (+165)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

PHI+105+1.5 (-215)

NYM-125-1.5 (+170)

Total 8.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/17/26	@ NYM	W 3–0	W +1.5	U 8
9/16/26	@ WSH	W 3–0	W -1.5	U 9
9/15/26	@ WSH	L 3–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/13/26	@ ATL	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 9.5
9/12/26	@ ATL	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/11/26	@ ATL	L 5–6	W +1.5	O 7
9/10/26	vs HOU	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs HOU	W 11–7	W -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs HOU	L 5–6	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/7/26	vs ATL	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

New York Mets

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/17/26	vs PHI	L 0–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/16/26	vs BAL	L 1–7	L +1.5	U 9
9/15/26	vs BAL	L 5–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/14/26	vs BAL	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/13/26	@ NYY	L 0–2	L +1.5	U 8
9/12/26	@ NYY	W 12–2	W +1.5	O 8
9/11/26	@ NYY	L 4–6	L +1.5	O 8
9/9/26	@ MIA	W 15–14	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	@ MIA	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 8
9/7/26	@ MIA	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Phillies and Mets
	Statistic
8.0 (8.1)	Hits	8.0 (8.0)
1.5 (1.5)	Doubles	1.3 (1.3)
1.1 (1.2)	Home Runs	1.2 (1.2)
13.1 (13.4)	Total Bases	13.2 (13.3)
3.2 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.2)
8.4 (8.3)	Strikeouts	8.4 (8.4)
0.6 (0.6)	Stolen Bases	0.6 (0.6)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PhilliesTim MayzaConfirmed

MetsZac ThorntonConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11945.7%Under-15961.4%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-15360.5%Under+12045.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+17836.0%Under-24170.7%

Starting lineups

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Schwarber+52516.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41019.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11252.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15460.6%
2Trea TurnerSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterTrea Turner+11208.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49283.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-27273.1%Under+20033.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21431.8%Under-30775.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10250.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+51516.3%Under-84089.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
3Bryce HarperRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryce Harper+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59085.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
4Luis Arraez2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Arraez+32003.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39520.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits1.5Over+19334.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30075.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20567.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13143.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+38220.7%Under-58785.4%
5Alec Bohm1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterAlec Bohm+12207.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54384.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-25371.7%Under+18734.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25171.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13557.4%Under-10350.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36978.7%
6Edmundo SosaLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEdmundo Sosa+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42719.0%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33677.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31324.2%Under-46782.4%
7Bryson Stott3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryson Stott+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47817.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-19265.8%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23729.7%Under-34377.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50716.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
8J.T. RealmutoC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJ.T. Realmuto+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44518.3%Under-70087.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22331.0%Under-32176.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37679.0%
9Derek HillCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDerek Hill+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56115.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41280.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+59914.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35022.2%Under-53184.2%

New York MetsConfirmed

1Francisco LindorSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFrancisco Lindor+82010.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15260.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49183.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26672.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+52316.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
2Juan SotoLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJuan Soto+84010.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37621.0%Under-57685.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-23670.2%Under+17536.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15938.6%Under-22469.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12555.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-13958.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48817.0%Under-78088.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
3Bo Bichette3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBo Bichette+11208.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34422.5%Under-52183.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-26672.7%Under+19533.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24871.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13657.6%Under-10150.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
4Carson BengeRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCarson Benge+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58185.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-19466.0%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50616.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29974.9%
5Mark VientosDH
Player props1 market
First Home Run HitterMark Vientos+12207.6%
6A.J. EwingCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterA.J. Ewing+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37621.0%Under-57685.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13657.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+37820.9%Under-58085.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
7Marcus Semien2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMarcus Semien+16205.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45318.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33477.0%
8Brett Baty1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrett Baty+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51216.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
9Luis TorrensC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Torrens+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53115.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17763.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41080.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17136.9%Under-24170.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33323.1%Under-50183.4%

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