MLB matchup

09/18/20267:10 PMTropicana FieldSt. Petersburg, FL

Red Sox84 – 71vsRays94 – 60

Sharp side

✈️ Red Sox +114

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Boston Red Sox	3.4	51.0%
Tampa Bay Rays	3.3	49.0%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Boston Red Sox	B-	A	B+
Tampa Bay Rays	B	B+	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+114+1.5 (-198)

TB-137-1.5 (+163)

Total 7.0Over -112Under -108

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+115+1.5 (-190)

TB-140-1.5 (+155)

Total 7.0Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+116+1.5 (-195)

TB-137-1.5 (+155)

Total 7.0Over -125Under -113

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+120+1.5 (-189)

TB-140-1.5 (+160)

Total 7.5Over +114Under -136

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+121+1.5 (-190)

TB-131-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.0Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+115+1.5 (-200)

TB-140-1.5 (+160)

Total 7.0Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+112+1.5 (-205)

TB-132-1.5 (+168)

Total 7.5Over +112Under -138

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+115+1.5 (-190)

TB-140-1.5 (+160)

Total 7.5Over +115Under -135

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+115+1.5 (-200)

TB-135-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.5Over +115Under -135

Recent form

Last 10 games

Boston Red Sox

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U2–8–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/17/26	@ TEX	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/16/26	@ TEX	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/15/26	@ TEX	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	vs KC	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/12/26	vs KC	W 5–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	vs KC	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs LAA	L 4–6	L -1.5	O 9
9/8/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/7/26	vs LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ BAL	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall8–2–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/17/26	vs ATH	W 10–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/16/26	vs ATH	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/15/26	vs ATH	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8
9/13/26	vs HOU	W 14–4	W -1.5	O 8
9/12/26	vs HOU	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/11/26	vs HOU	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/10/26	@ ATL	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 8
9/9/26	@ ATL	W 7–2	W +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ ATL	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/6/26	@ TEX	L 6–8	L -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Red Sox and Rays
	Statistic
7.5 (8.3)	Hits	7.7 (8.7)
1.6 (1.8)	Doubles	1.2 (1.4)
0.8 (1.0)	Home Runs	0.8 (1.1)
11.9 (13.4)	Total Bases	11.4 (13.6)
3.0 (3.2)	Walks	2.9 (3.2)
8.4 (8.2)	Strikeouts	7.3 (7.1)
0.6 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.9 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

Red SoxRanger SuarezConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-15961.4%Under+12045.5%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%

Total Outs Recorded17.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+12245.0%Under-15660.9%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%

RaysIan SeymourConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-10150.2%Under-13156.7%

Total Hits Allowed3.5Over-12856.1%Under-10451.0%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-19165.6%Under+14341.2%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over-13858.0%Under+10848.1%

Total Walks Allowed0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17536.4%

Starting lineups

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Roman AnthonyLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRoman Anthony+84010.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43418.7%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-18965.4%Under+14241.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13958.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10208.9%Under-200095.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
2Nick Sogard1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Sogard+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43418.7%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17763.9%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29025.6%Under-42881.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+71012.3%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
3Jahmai JonesDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJahmai Jones+71012.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38479.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19833.6%Under-28273.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+19933.4%Under-28474.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+12007.7%Under-250096.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38279.3%
4Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWilyer Abreu+86010.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40719.7%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27873.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14341.2%Under-20066.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+82010.9%Under-150093.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23130.2%Under-33376.9%
5Trevor StorySS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTrevor Story+11807.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47217.5%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-16662.4%Under+12544.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24229.2%Under-35277.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53115.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28925.7%Under-42781.0%
6Caleb Durbin3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCaleb Durbin+16805.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54715.5%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38679.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10349.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+53815.7%Under-88089.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35878.2%
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsiah Kiner-Falefa+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52216.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17463.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27226.9%Under-40080.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35322.1%Under-53684.3%
8Nate EatonCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNate Eaton+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+69012.7%Under-122092.4%
Total Hits0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+37221.2%Under-57085.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+24329.2%Under-35277.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+58814.5%Under-98090.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41780.7%
9Connor WongC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterConnor Wong+16805.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54715.5%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18464.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9709.3%Under-186094.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32823.4%Under-49283.1%

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Yandy DiazDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYandy Diaz+11208.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14358.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35522.0%Under-53884.3%
Total Hits1.5Over+17037.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29874.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13143.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28974.3%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+16605.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46517.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38879.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20333.0%Under-28974.3%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+73012.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45718.0%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-24771.2%Under+18235.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15560.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
4Ryan Vilade2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan Vilade+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51316.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33276.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9809.3%Under-190095.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38479.3%
5Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+55001.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+15838.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46117.8%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-25271.6%Under+18635.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25428.2%Under-37078.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-17663.8%Under+12644.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+28526.0%Under-42080.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+39020.4%Under-60085.7%
6Jonny DeLucaCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJonny DeLuca+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48617.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-35077.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12655.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+43918.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+35522.0%Under-53984.4%
7Nick FortesC
Player props7 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Fortes+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52715.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12145.2%Under-16161.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37578.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12455.4%
8Victor Mesa Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVictor Mesa Jr.+14806.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21831.4%Under-31275.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23069.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+85010.5%Under-156094.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43581.3%
9Taylor WallsSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTaylor Walls+28003.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55015.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11353.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33423.0%Under-50383.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21232.1%Under-30475.2%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial